4920 Boca Chica · Caney City, TX 75148

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,542 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2008 5,750 sqft lot $117/sqft · 18% below area Est $220k · 18% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the highly sought-after Point La Vista lake community, this property offers an exciting opportunity for both first-time homebuyers and investors alike. Surrounded by new construction and recently built homes, the area continues to grow in demand and value. The home has already seen extensive renovations, creating a strong foundation for its next owner. With just a few finishing touches, it can easily be customized to reflect your personal style or positioned for strong resale or rental potential. Whether you’re looking for an affordable entry into a desirable lake-area neighborhood or a value-add investment in a rapidly improving community, this property checks all the boxes. Enjoy the charm of lake-community living with the upside of ongoing development—an ideal blend of lifestyle and opportunity.

Key facts

• 5,750 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Tags

• POINT LA VISTA LAKE COMMUNITY
• EXTENSIVE RENOVATIONS
• LAKE-COMMUNITY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 0.6% in Caney City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,562 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Malakoff ISD (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #187 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.44%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,870
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -18.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4898 Point La Vista Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-1%)	1mo	$279,000	$184	94
5018 Point Lavista	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-3%)	0mo	$274,999	$183	85
221 Harris Blvd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,361 (-12%)	6mo	$235,000	$173	66
219 Harris Blvd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,361 (-12%)	8mo	$240,000	$176	65
14815 Goliad Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-3%)	10mo	$249,900	$167	64
5530 Sam Slade Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+2%)	4mo	$249,900	$159	61
286 Harris Blvd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-12%)	18mo	$233,000	$173	61
107 Nob Hill Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+8%)	11mo	$549,000	$328	61
303 Harris Blvd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,317 (-15%)	17mo	$229,990	$175	56
5220 Point Lavista	0.29mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,648 (+7%)	16mo	$347,500	$211	53
5294 Loma Vis	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+11%)	23mo	$275,000	$160	47
5445 Point Lavista	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,769 (+15%)	23mo	$199,500	$113	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $9,528
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $58,302
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75148

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,066/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,632

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5320 Loma Vis Malakoff, TX	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,400	$1.81	44d	1	0.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $180,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $180,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-01-23
    listed $180,000 Active 832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (832 chars)

    Located in the highly sought-after Point La Vista lake community, this property offers an exciting opportunity for both first-time homebuyers and investors alike. Surrounded by new construction and recently built homes, the area continues to grow in demand and value. The home has already seen extensive renovations, creating a strong foundation for its next owner. With just a few finishing touches, it can easily be customized to reflect your personal style or positioned for strong resale or rental potential. Whether you’re looking for an affordable entry into a desirable lake-area neighborhood or a value-add investment in a rapidly improving community, this property checks all the boxes. Enjoy the charm of lake-community living with the upside of ongoing development—an ideal blend of lifestyle and opportunity.

16. 2026-01-22
    listed $180,000 Active 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Located in the highly sought-after Point La Vista lake community, this property offers an exciting opportunity for both first-time homebuyers and investors alike. Surrounded by new construction and recently built homes, the area continues to grow in demand and value. The home has already seen extensive renovations, creating a strong foundation for its next owner. With just a few finishing touches, it can easily be customized to reflect your personal style or positioned for strong resale or rental potential. Whether you’re looking for an affordable entry into a desirable lake-area neighborhood or a value-add investment in a rapidly improving community, this property checks all the boxes. Enjoy the charm of lake-community living with the upside of ongoing development—an ideal blend of lifestyle and opportunity.

17. 2024-05-06
    historical
18. 2024-02-05
    listed $190,000 Active
19. 2018-06-20
    historical
20. 2017-12-12
    status Active
21. 2017-12-11
    historical
22. 2017-06-15
    price $90,000
23. 2016-12-06
    listed $100,000 Active
24. 2016-09-11
    historical
25. 2015-07-30
    listed $124,500 Active
26. 2011-12-31
    historical
27. 2011-07-24
    listed $135,000 Active
28. 2006-10-13
    soldstatus
29. 2005-09-22
    soldstatus
30. 1986-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,066 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$228/yr (+$19/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$3,066
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $4,727
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,134
• After-tax cash flow: $6,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malakoff ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828780
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,970
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3200
• State rank: #187 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caney City

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1562
• US rank: #26636

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,944

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.76%
• Current HPI: 217.1629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $180,000 GTAR
• 2026-01-22 Listed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-02-05 Listed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2018-06-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-12-12 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2017-12-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-06-15 Price Changed $90,000 NTREIS
• 2016-12-06 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2016-09-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2015-07-30 Listed $124,500 NTREIS
• 2011-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2011-07-24 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2006-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,066 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.