3138 W Dakota Ave Unit SP154 · Fresno, CA 93722

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 23 Days on market

Built 1980 Fair condition Est $115k · at est. $675/mo HOA · 39% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover comfortable living in Fresno's premier all-age communities with beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured homes. Clean and spacious homes feature both a living room and a family room, offering plenty of space for relaxing, entertaining and everyday living activities. . Step outside and enjoy your own private patio and driveway, creating the perfect blend of indoor comfort and outdoor living. Residents at Four Seasons enjoy access to outstanding community amenities including swimming pools, clubhouses, playgrounds, fitness centers, Library, Laundry Facilities, BBQ Picnic, Billiards, Gated Community access, Pets-friendly space, Basketball, Game Room and RV Storage. Co

Key facts

• Swimming pools
• Community amenities
• Playgrounds

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIO
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SWIMMING POOLS
• CLUBHOUSES
• PLAYGROUNDS
• FITNESS CENTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Community amenities include pool, clubhouse, playground, landscaped common areas, and gated entry; Landscape maintenance included

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Electric service available; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home; Park space rented
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Composition roof; Wood subfloor foundation
• Exterior features: One-level layout; Fenced lot; Urban setting; Private in-ground pool (fenced; community access)

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat and air
• Interior features: Central heating and cooling
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-659/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (7.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilson Elementary (670 students, 97% FRL); Fort Miller Middle (623 students, 98% FRL); Fresno High (math 10% / reading 38%, grade F, #934 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 2,092 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 77% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,055 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,816
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3138 W Dakota Ave #210	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$42,500	$32	80
3138 W Dakota Ave #45	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,305 (+5%)	15mo	$83,000	$64	73
2706 W Ashlan Ave #323	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (+4%)	8mo	$112,000	$86	54
2706 W Ashlan Ave #261	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (0%)	23mo	$115,000	$92	48
2706 W Ashlan Ave #183	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-4%)	18mo	$75,000	$63	45
2706 W Ashlan Ave #118	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-12%)	11mo	$110,000	$100	44
2706 W Ashlan Ave #202	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	15mo	$160,000	$119	42
2706 W Ashlan Ave #204	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	15mo	$155,000	$115	42
2706 W Ashlan Ave #229	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+10%)	21mo	$145,000	$106	38
2706 W Ashlan Ave #197	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (+12%)	22mo	$115,000	$83	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-19,427
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-13,564
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93722

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,747 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$675
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,817

Max offer price $102,055

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $21	-5% $-17	+0% $-55	+5% $-93	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-193	-5% $-124	+0% $-55	+5% $14	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-27	base $-55	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3449 N Marks Ave Apt 102 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	827	$1,275	$1.54	25d	1	0.13mi
3328 N Marks Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	3d	7	0.24mi
2530 W Fountain Way Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$990	$1.15	45d	1	0.51mi
3274 W Ashlan Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,535	$1.57	4d	5	0.60mi
3207 W Shields Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$1,725	$1.80	3d	3	0.61mi
3165 W Shields Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	565	$1,300	$2.30	3d	1	0.62mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,450	$1.51	18d	1	0.71mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Unit 60-147 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,695	$1.77	21d	1	0.71mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Unit 84-118 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,695	$1.77	45d	1	0.71mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Unit 60-158 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,695	$1.77	25d	1	0.71mi
3166 W Princeton Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	730	$1,300	$1.78	3d	2	0.73mi
3581 N Parkway Dr Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	642	$1,595	$2.48	3d	10	0.73mi
1668 W Ashlan Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	877	$1,185	$1.35	25d	1	1.06mi
4264 N Bengston Ave Unit 101 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	45d	1	1.09mi
3058 W San Gabriel Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,450	$1.91	45d	1	1.16mi
4597 N Emerson Ave Apt 103 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	25d	1	1.19mi
3326 N West Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,225	$1.29	23d	1	1.23mi
2264 N Marks Ave Fresno, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	3d	1	1.26mi
1212 W Andrews Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	18d	1	1.27mi
2212 N Marks Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	671	$1,485	$2.21	3d	2	1.31mi
1050 W Griffith Way Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	723	$1,275	$1.76	13d	6	1.33mi
941 W Dakota Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	960	$1,895	$1.97	12d	2	1.34mi
3572 N Blythe Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1026	$2,095	$2.04	3d	6	1.34mi
2130 N Marks Ave Fresno, CA	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,882	$2.09	3d	5	1.41mi
4467 N Van Dyke Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,195	$1.70	5d	1	1.44mi
4942 N Holt Ave #103 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	25d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $675 · $8,100/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 48 unhealthy d/yr today · 50 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,677
• − Management: −$1,677
• − HOA: −$8,100
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$2,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$492
• After-tax cash flow: $-167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations to improve its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which would increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior overhang — severe wear and potential structural issues
• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear and tear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace curtains — improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both repair flooring — enhances interior aesthetics and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior overhang · severe wear and potential structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · moderate wear and tear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$18,000–65,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace curtains — improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both repair flooring — enhances interior aesthetics and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• County: Fresno County · 834,801 people
• City population: 593,114
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 86,110
• Household income: $80,285
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3033.0

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 26% White 22% Asian 15% Black 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -409.00%
• Current HPI: 364.934
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $110,000 FRESNOMLS