4219 S County Rd 1140 · Midland, TX 79706

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,717 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2009 0.52 ac lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Main home 2-bedroom 1 bathroom. Back home is divided into 2 parts 1 bedroom & 1 bathroom. Second part 2-bedroom 1 bathroom. With half an acre there's so many possibilities. Homes to be sold as is. Bring all offers!

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 2009
• Listed 29 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $752 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Greenwood ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #220 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,165 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.04%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $16,610
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $73,514
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79706

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 379
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,054/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $752

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $859	-5% $805	+0% $752	+5% $698	+10% $645
Rent	-10% $552	-5% $652	+0% $752	+5% $851	+10% $951
Rate	-1.0pp $847	-0.5pp $800	base $752	+0.5pp $703	+1.0pp $653

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2521 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,250	$1.39	21d	1	0.93mi
2507 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2509 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2512 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2515 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2508 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2602 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2600 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2511 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2519 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,250	$1.39	21d	1	1.01mi
2601 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2512 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2509 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2520 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2507 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2601 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2511 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2600 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2602 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2508 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2520 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2514 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2518 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2517 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2516 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2513 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,850	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
2504 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$3,070	$1.90	44d	1	1.01mi
2517 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2516 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2513 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2518 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2515 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2514 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi
2419 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	14d	1	1.01mi
2417 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	14d	1	1.01mi
2519 S County Rd Unit 1103 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$3,070	$1.90	44d	1	1.01mi
2505 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$3,070	$1.90	44d	1	1.01mi
2421 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	14d	1	1.01mi
2501 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	14d	1	1.01mi
2510 S County Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,475	$1.65	44d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $189,000 Active 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Main home 2-bedroom 1 bathroom. Back home is divided into 2 parts 1 bedroom & 1 bathroom. Second part 2-bedroom 1 bathroom. With half an acre there's so many possibilities. Homes to be sold as is. Bring all offers!

17. 2026-05-03
    price $189,000
18. 2025-12-18
    price $215,000
19. 2025-12-03
    price $230,000
20. 2008-07-18
    soldstatus
21. 2004-02-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,054 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,405/yr (+$117/mo · 68.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,054
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,421
• − Management: −$2,421
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $6,341
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,522
• After-tax cash flow: $7,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenwood ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821750
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $74,012
• Composite: 40.54/100
• National rank: #3701
• State rank: #220 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,281
• Household income: $108,059
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 44% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.42%
• Current HPI: 212.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $189,000 ODMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $189,000 ODMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $215,000 ODMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $230,000 ODMLS
• 2008-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,054 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.