4399 Aplicella Ct #32 · Manteca, CA 95337

$129,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1975 $90/sqft · 30% below area Est $185k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1975 Lakewood mobile home located in Oakwood Lake Community. This move-in ready home has been recently updated and offers a spacious floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a den providing flexible living space. Interior features include updated finishes and a fireplace in the main living area. Functional layout with multiple living areas suitable for a variety of uses. Current space rent is $1,195 per month.

Key facts

• Updated finishes
• Fireplace
• Parking

Tags

• OAKWOOD LAKE COMMUNITY
• UPDATED FINISHES
• FIREPLACE
• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $129,950 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$185,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 387 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,254 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.87%
• DSCR: 3.17
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,000
• List price: $129,950
• Delta: -29.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4399 Aplicella #59	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$188,000	$131	98
4399 Aplicella Ct #29	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$74,000	$51	92
4399 Aplicella Ct #49	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-11%)	5mo	$185,000	$144	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $66,890
• Equity at exit: $19,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $154,546
• Equity at exit: $11,236

Cash invested: $36,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95337

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,949/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $1,482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $129,950

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,488
• Closing costs: $3,898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3275 Hayduke St Manteca, CA	3.0	2.5	1625	$2,950	$1.82	3d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $129,950 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,950 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,950 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,950 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,950 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,950 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,950 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,950 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,950 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,950 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,950 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,950 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,950 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,950 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,950 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,950 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,279
• − Property taxes: −$1,949
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,892
• − Management: −$2,892
• − Depreciation: −$3,780
• Taxable income: $16,706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,009
• After-tax cash flow: $13,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Manteca

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #17877

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 98,916
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,731
• Household income: $117,137
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 880.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 29% Two or more races 23% Asian 21% Black 4% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 11% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -481.88%
• Current HPI: 273.9008
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B