115 Smith Hill Rd · Hemphill, TX 75948

$75,222

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2024 1.35 ac lot ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to country living with room to grow in Hemphill, Texas! This 2024 Clayton manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and sits on approximately 1.35 acres with FM 83 road frontage. The home includes a Generac whole-home generator, providing peace of mind during outages. The property also includes two metal storage sheds and a second home on-site that is currently a total renovation project or potential tear-down, offering additional opportunity for future use. A portion of the land is currently leased, with a tenant paying lot rent for their manufactured home, creating an added income component. Conveniently located just 17 minutes from the Six Mile Boat Ramp on Toledo Bend Lake and approximately 30 minutes from Sam Rayburn, this property is ideal for full-time living, weekend use, or an investment-minded buyer.

Key facts

• Leased land
• Second home on-site
• 1.35 acre lot

Tags

• GENERAC WHOLE-HOME GENERATOR
• TWO METAL STORAGE SHEDS
• SECOND HOME ON-SITE
• LEASED LAND
• ADDED INCOME COMPONENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($806 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#530 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemphill ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $520 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sabine County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 89% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,093 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.59%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-380
• Equity at exit: $11,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $14,792
• Equity at exit: $6,504

Cash invested: $21,062 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75948

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$394
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $571

Max offer price $75,222

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,806
• Closing costs: $2,257
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $75,222 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $75,222 Pending 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $75,222 Pending 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   status $75,222 Pending 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,222 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $75,222 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-05-11
   price $75,222 840-char remark

   Show marketing remark (837 chars)

   Welcome to country living with room to grow in Hemphill, Texas! This 2024 Clayton manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and sits on approximately 1.35 acres with FM 83 road frontage. The home includes a Generac whole-home generator, providing peace of mind during outages. The property also includes two metal storage sheds and a second home on-site that is currently a total renovation project or potential tear-down, offering additional opportunity for future use. A portion of the land is currently leased, with a tenant paying lot rent for their manufactured home, creating an added income component. Conveniently located just 17 minutes from the Six Mile Boat Ramp on Toledo Bend Lake and approximately 30 minutes from Sam Rayburn, this property is ideal for full-time living, weekend use, or an investment-minded buyer.

8. 2026-05-11
   price $75,222 837-char remark

   Show marketing remark (837 chars)

   Welcome to country living with room to grow in Hemphill, Texas! This 2024 Clayton manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and sits on approximately 1.35 acres with FM 83 road frontage. The home includes a Generac whole-home generator, providing peace of mind during outages. The property also includes two metal storage sheds and a second home on-site that is currently a total renovation project or potential tear-down, offering additional opportunity for future use. A portion of the land is currently leased, with a tenant paying lot rent for their manufactured home, creating an added income component. Conveniently located just 17 minutes from the Six Mile Boat Ramp on Toledo Bend Lake and approximately 30 minutes from Sam Rayburn, this property is ideal for full-time living, weekend use, or an investment-minded buyer.

9. 2026-04-17
   price $91,444 840-char remark

   Show marketing remark (840 chars)

   Welcome to country living with room to grow in Hemphill, Texas! This 2024 Clayton manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and sits on approximately 1.35 acres with FM 83 road frontage. The home includes a Generac whole-home generator, providing peace of mind during outages. The property also includes two metal storage sheds and a second home on-site that is currently a total renovation project or potential tear-down, offering additional opportunity for future use. A portion of the land is currently leased, with a tenant paying lot rent for their manufactured home, creating an added income component. Conveniently located just 17 minutes from the Six Mile Boat Ramp on Toledo Bend Lake and approximately 30 minutes from Sam Rayburn, this property is ideal for full-time living, weekend use, or an investment-minded buyer.

10. 2026-03-13
    listed $91,444 Active 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Welcome to country living with room to grow in Hemphill, Texas! This 2024 Clayton manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and sits on approximately 1.35 acres with FM 83 road frontage. The home includes a Generac whole-home generator, providing peace of mind during outages. The property also includes two metal storage sheds and a second home on-site that is currently a total renovation project or potential tear-down, offering additional opportunity for future use. A portion of the land is currently leased, with a tenant paying lot rent for their manufactured home, creating an added income component. Conveniently located just 17 minutes from the Six Mile Boat Ramp on Toledo Bend Lake and approximately 30 minutes from Sam Rayburn, this property is ideal for full-time living, weekend use, or an investment-minded buyer.

11. 2026-02-16
    listed $120,000 Active 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    Welcome to country living with room to grow in Hemphill, Texas! This 2024 Clayton manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and sits on approximately 1.35 acres with FM 83 road frontage. The home includes a Generac whole-home generator, providing peace of mind during outages. The property also includes two metal storage sheds and a second home on-site that is currently a total renovation project or potential tear-down, offering additional opportunity for future use. A portion of the land is currently leased, with a tenant paying lot rent for their manufactured home, creating an added income component. Conveniently located just 17 minutes from the Six Mile Boat Ramp on Toledo Bend Lake and approximately 30 minutes from Sam Rayburn, this property is ideal for full-time living, weekend use, or an investment-minded buyer.

12. 2023-11-06
    soldstatus
13. 2020-01-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $300 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,377 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,077/yr (+$90/mo · 359.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 89% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,214
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$376
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$774
• − Management: −$774
• − Depreciation: −$2,188
• Taxable income: $1,046
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$251
• After-tax cash flow: $1,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemphill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,330
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5821
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hemphill

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #530
• US rank: #10376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,218

Population outlook (Sabine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,354 people
• By 2030: 8,806 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 7,871 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 7,224 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 6,351 · -32.1%
• By 2100: 5,465 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Vietnamese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sabine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.5) · D 10.6% · R 89.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -54.8pp · 2024: -78.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.5 2020: R+75.0 2016: R+72.8 2012: R+63.9 2008: R+54.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.26%
• Current HPI: 159.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-37.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $75,222 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $75,222 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $91,444 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $91,444 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $300 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.