1212 Candlewood Dr · Lakeland Highlands, FL 33813

$360,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 219 Days on market

Built 1980 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Short Sale. Short Sale. Short Sale opportunities have distinct Buyer responsibilities. Please pay close attention. Buyers and Buyer’s agents verify schools, room sizes, Leasing Restrictions, Community Memberships, Pets and HOA restrictions along with Community Memberships. All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer is responsible for removing any items left on the property after closing. Note 24 hour Notice needed before booking a showing. This property while a short sale presents a special opportunity. The home is in the highly sought-out Lake Point South! Located in the heart of South Lakeland, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath, pool ho

Key facts

• Formal dining
• Pool home
• Formal living

Tags

• POOL HOME
• FORMAL LIVING
• FORMAL DINING
• COVETED NEIGHBORHOODS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homesteaded; No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: HOA: Lake Point South Association (optional fees); Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Septic tank; Public water available; Water connected; Electricity connected; Cable available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Completed condition; Home faces south
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built on approximately 0.42-acre lot
• Exterior features: Porch; Mature landscaping; Landscaped lot; Private gunite pool; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Walk-in closets; Formal dining room; Inside utility room; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($113/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#400 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $189k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $197k; list at $360k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,883 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-61,330
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-67,038
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33813

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,051/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,007

Max offer price $360,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $111	+0% $9	+5% $-92	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-110	+0% $9	+5% $129	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $101	base $9	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1365 Evergreen Park Cir Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	2314	$3,195	$1.38	24d	1	0.87mi
95 Woodside Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2315	$2,695	$1.16	4d	1	1.36mi
1102 Sugartree Dr S Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	3016	$3,200	$1.06	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   status Active
3. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-02
   price $360,000
5. 2026-03-11
   price $429,000
6. 2026-02-18
   status Active
7. 2025-10-06
   status Pending
8. 2025-07-30
   price $469,000
9. 2025-06-11
   price $489,000
10. 2025-05-19
    historical
11. 2025-05-18
    listed $549,000 Active
12. 2025-05-11
    listed $5,000 New
13. 1998-08-18
    soldstatus $197,200
14. 1991-09-01
    soldstatus $162,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,051 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,051 · $338/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$4,051
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,898
• − Management: −$2,898
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$6,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,454
• After-tax cash flow: $1,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland Highlands

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #400
• US rank: #7108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland Highlands, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 38,674
• Household income: $99,497
• Rent vs Own: 21.0% rent · 79.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 778.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.20%
• Current HPI: 296.1207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+122.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $360,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $429,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $469,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $489,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-19 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-05-18 Listed $549,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-11 Listed $5,000 GAMLS
• 1998-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $197,200 Public Records
• 1991-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,051 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.