4315 O'connell St · Rockford, IL 61109

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1972 8,276 sqft lot Est $183k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained one owner home on Rockford's east side. This 3 bed, 2 bath bi-level home offers over 1630 SF of living space. Foyer area has office attached. Living room and dining are open concept. Nicely appointed kitchen with newer appliances off of main living room and has access to small deck area. Family room offers secondary living space perfect for entertaining. Fenced on backyard with large patio and with no immediate neighbors behind it feels like a private park. Great location just minutes from shopping, dining and I-39 interchange.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $145,254 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.19%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,784
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4315 O'connell St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,632 (0%)	0mo	$185,000	$113	100
4303 Oconnell St	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,690 (+4%)	2mo	$190,000	$112	86
3010 Rutgers Pl	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-6%)	9mo	$185,000	$121	70
4319 Yale Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+4%)	5mo	$185,000	$108	70
2822 Norway Pine Rd	0.48mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,664 (+2%)	1mo	$220,000	$132	64
3316 New England Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (+8%)	12mo	$195,000	$110	61
3121 Bavarian Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-4%)	13mo	$175,000	$112	59
3018 Rutgers Pl	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,770 (+8%)	18mo	$172,000	$97	58
2807 Ashbrook Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,716 (+5%)	2mo	$152,000	$89	55
2724 Norway Pine Rd	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+8%)	6mo	$225,000	$128	55
3928 Seward Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,510 (-8%)	7mo	$180,000	$119	46
2918 Bavarian Ln	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,847 (+13%)	17mo	$195,000	$106	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-22,742
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,770
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61109

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $811/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,340

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2723 Silent Wood Trl Unit 2735-7 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,310	$1.25	21d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Well maintained one owner home on Rockford's east side. This 3 bed, 2 bath bi-level home offers over 1630 SF of living space. Foyer area has office attached. Living room and dining are open concept. Nicely appointed kitchen with newer appliances off of main living room and has access to small deck area. Family room offers secondary living space perfect for entertaining. Fenced on backyard with large patio and with no immediate neighbors behind it feels like a private park. Great location just minutes from shopping, dining and I-39 interchange.

2. 2026-04-04
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Well maintained one owner home on Rockford's east side. This 3 bed, 2 bath bi-level home offers over 1630 SF of living space. Foyer area has office attached. Living room and dining are open concept. Nicely appointed kitchen with newer appliances off of main living room and has access to small deck area. Family room offers secondary living space perfect for entertaining. Fenced on backyard with large patio and with no immediate neighbors behind it feels like a private park. Great location just minutes from shopping, dining and I-39 interchange.

3. 2026-03-30
   listed $175,000 Active 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Well maintained one owner home on Rockford's east side. This 3 bed, 2 bath bi-level home offers over 1630 SF of living space. Foyer area has office attached. Living room and dining are open concept. Nicely appointed kitchen with newer appliances off of main living room and has access to small deck area. Family room offers secondary living space perfect for entertaining. Fenced on backyard with large patio and with no immediate neighbors behind it feels like a private park. Great location just minutes from shopping, dining and I-39 interchange.

4. 2026-03-30
   listed $175,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Well maintained one owner home on Rockford's east side. This 3 bed, 2 bath bi-level home offers over 1630 SF of living space. Foyer area has office attached. Living room and dining are open concept. Nicely appointed kitchen with newer appliances off of main living room and has access to small deck area. Family room offers secondary living space perfect for entertaining. Fenced on backyard with large patio and with no immediate neighbors behind it feels like a private park. Great location just minutes from shopping, dining and I-39 interchange.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $811 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,392 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,581/yr (+$132/mo · 194.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$811
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,394
• − Management: −$1,394
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$465
• After-tax cash flow: $1,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 26,768
• Household income: $62,973
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 941.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.42%
• Current HPI: 296.0019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-04-04 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $175,000 NWIAR
• 2026-03-30 Listed $175,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $811 · -8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.