Horizon Plan · Lakewood Park, FL 34951

$238,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,135 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Horizon is a bright and inviting home designed for comfort, simplicity, and effortless Florida living. With 1,135 square feet of well-planned space, this two-bedroom layout is ideal for those who want a cozy low-maintenance home while still enjoying the amenities and lifestyle of Spanish Lakes. A covered entry leads you into a welcoming foyer that opens directly into the spacious great room. This open living area is the heart of the home, offering plenty of room for relaxing, hosting friends, or enjoying a quiet morning with the sun coming through the windows. The great room flows into a thoughtfully designed kitchen that features an island, generous counter space, a pantry, and a comfo

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Walk-in closet
• Welcoming foyer

Tags

• COVERED ENTRY
• WELCOMING FOYER
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $227,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan home located in Fort Pierce
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,135

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Horizon)

🏗️ New construction. The $238,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $241,755.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($348/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,152 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,755
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5809 Killarney Ave	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,125 (-1%)	4mo	$240,000	$213	63
5711 Killarney Ave	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,112 (-2%)	11mo	$200,000	$180	53
3 Quito	0.31mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,305 (+15%)	2mo	$249,000	$191	52
11 Villa Blanca	0.22mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,305 (+15%)	8mo	$249,000	$191	51
674 25th St SW	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+4%)	5mo	$215,000	$183	50
6905 Bayard Rd	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,075 (-5%)	11mo	$305,000	$284	50
6506 Deland Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-11%)	15mo	$250,000	$248	48
6806 Pensacola Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,244 (+10%)	5mo	$305,000	$245	47
5 Villa Maria	0.36mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,305 (+15%)	8mo	$249,000	$191	44
6806 Lakeland Blvd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,263 (+11%)	10mo	$313,000	$248	38
6604 Donlon	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,273 (+12%)	15mo	$294,990	$232	36
11 Villa Del Norte	0.67mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,305 (+15%)	7mo	$249,000	$191	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-37,296
• Equity at exit: $36,046

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-29,968
• Equity at exit: $20,903

Cash invested: $67,691 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,268
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$302 /mo · $3,626/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,115

Max offer price $241,755

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $113	+0% $29	+5% $-55	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-56	+0% $29	+5% $114	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $151	-0.5pp $90	base $29	+0.5pp $-34	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,439
• Closing costs: $7,253
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5642 Sunberry Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,950	$1.42	25d	1	0.50mi
6906 Ocala Ave Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,955	$1.66	15d	1	0.70mi
2450 8th Ave SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$2,100	$1.51	23d	1	0.83mi
7500 Pensacola Rd Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$2,150	$1.91	15d	1	0.99mi
985 23rd Pl SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,200	$1.87	23d	1	1.04mi
7403 Winter Garden Pkwy Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,200	$1.60	23d	1	1.04mi
7503 Paso Robles Blvd Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,000	$1.59	25d	1	1.06mi
3766 Harborside Ave Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1308	$2,160	$1.65	15d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $238,990 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,990 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,990 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,990 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,990 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $238,990 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,990 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $238,990 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,990 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $238,990 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,990 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $238,990 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $238,990 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $227,990 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,990 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,990 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $227,990 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,542
• − Property taxes: −$3,626
• − Insurance: −$1,209
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$7,033
• Taxable loss: −$3,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$893
• After-tax cash flow: $1,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Horizon is a well-maintained, move-in-ready home with a good condition score. It offers a bright and inviting living space with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and improves curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and improves curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Park

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #15407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B