50 Works Rd · Dukedom, TN 42088

$126,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

0.94 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath home in Wingo on . 94 acre lot. The home has had updates that include the windows, kitchen, and bathrooms. There is a large bonus room upstairs that could also be used for a 4th bedroom.

Key facts

• Large bonus room
• Updated windows
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• LARGE BONUS ROOM
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Graves County (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #10 of 165 in KY (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 units permitted in Graves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($871 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Graves County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,440 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.68%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $87,357
• Equity at exit: $74,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $214,837
• Equity at exit: $130,719

Cash invested: $35,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42088

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$661
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,308/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $126,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $944	-5% $908	+0% $873	+5% $837	+10% $801
Rent	-10% $703	-5% $788	+0% $873	+5% $957	+10% $1,042
Rate	-1.0pp $936	-0.5pp $905	base $873	+0.5pp $840	+1.0pp $807

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,500
• Closing costs: $3,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $126,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $126,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $126,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $126,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $126,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $126,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $126,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $126,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $126,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $126,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $126,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $126,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $126,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $126,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $126,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    price $126,000 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home in Wingo on . 94 acre lot. The home has had updates that include the windows, kitchen, and bathrooms. There is a large bonus room upstairs that could also be used for a 4th bedroom.

17. 2026-04-21
    price $135,000 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home in Wingo on . 94 acre lot. The home has had updates that include the windows, kitchen, and bathrooms. There is a large bonus room upstairs that could also be used for a 4th bedroom.

18. 2026-03-22
    listed $150,000 Active 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home in Wingo on . 94 acre lot. The home has had updates that include the windows, kitchen, and bathrooms. There is a large bonus room upstairs that could also be used for a 4th bedroom.

19. 2024-05-06
    soldstatus $156,500 Closed 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Buyers offered higher purchase price to cover closing costs. Step into this charming home that effortlessly combines modern updates with cozy comfort. New flooring flows through the inviting living spaces, leading you to the kitchen featuring beautiful hickory cabinets and new countertops. All the windows were replaced. Enjoy the luxury of completely new bathrooms, three main-level bedrooms or the versatile upstairs bonus room, easily transformed into a fourth bedroom. Outside, a spacious 20'x30' shop awaits for projects or storage needs. This home offers the perfect blend of functionality and style in a desirable location—make it yours today!

20. 2024-04-03
    status Pending 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Buyers offered higher purchase price to cover closing costs. Step into this charming home that effortlessly combines modern updates with cozy comfort. New flooring flows through the inviting living spaces, leading you to the kitchen featuring beautiful hickory cabinets and new countertops. All the windows were replaced. Enjoy the luxury of completely new bathrooms, three main-level bedrooms or the versatile upstairs bonus room, easily transformed into a fourth bedroom. Outside, a spacious 20'x30' shop awaits for projects or storage needs. This home offers the perfect blend of functionality and style in a desirable location—make it yours today!

21. 2024-03-11
    listed $149,900 Active 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Buyers offered higher purchase price to cover closing costs. Step into this charming home that effortlessly combines modern updates with cozy comfort. New flooring flows through the inviting living spaces, leading you to the kitchen featuring beautiful hickory cabinets and new countertops. All the windows were replaced. Enjoy the luxury of completely new bathrooms, three main-level bedrooms or the versatile upstairs bonus room, easily transformed into a fourth bedroom. Outside, a spacious 20'x30' shop awaits for projects or storage needs. This home offers the perfect blend of functionality and style in a desirable location—make it yours today!

22. 2023-12-22
    price $155,900
23. 2023-11-25
    price $160,000
24. 2023-10-27
    price $165,000
25. 2023-10-13
    price $174,900
26. 2023-09-25
    price $179,900
27. 2023-09-18
    price $184,900
28. 2023-09-07
    listed $189,900 Active
29. 2006-04-04
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,308 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,308 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,058
• − Property taxes: −$1,308
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − Depreciation: −$3,665
• Taxable income: $8,965
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,152
• After-tax cash flow: $8,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graves County
• NCES district ID: 2102280
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 41.74/100
• National rank: #3400
• State rank: #10 of 165 in KY

Livability — Dukedom

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,507

Population outlook (Graves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,916 people
• By 2030: 36,587 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 35,580 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 33,906 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 28,957 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 21,552 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Graves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.6% · R 80.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+56.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+39.7 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Current HPI: 255.5392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+215.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $126,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $135,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $150,000 WKRMLS
• 2024-05-06 Sold (MLS) $156,500 WKRMLS
• 2024-04-03 Pending — WKRMLS
• 2024-03-11 Listed $149,900 WKRMLS
• 2023-12-22 Price Changed $155,900 WKRMLS
• 2023-11-25 Price Changed $160,000 WKRMLS
• 2023-10-27 Price Changed $165,000 WKRMLS
• 2023-10-13 Price Changed $174,900 WKRMLS
• 2023-09-25 Price Changed $179,900 WKRMLS
• 2023-09-18 Price Changed $184,900 WKRMLS
• 2023-09-07 Listed $189,900 WKRMLS
• 2006-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,308 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.