407 E 12th St · Flint, MI 48503

$13,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,113 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1920 4,792 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 21 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 45.2 x 109.11 (0.11 acre)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $14k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($871 rent vs $14k).
• Recommended offer: $13k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 59.1% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $93 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $405 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $13,297 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 59.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 188.71%
• DSCR: 9.40
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $33,390
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2002 Ferris Ave	0.22mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,087 (-2%)	8mo	$29,000	$27	74
1608 Broad Ct	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,130 (+2%)	18mo	$92,500	$82	73
609 Lippincott Blvd	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-3%)	9mo	$40,000	$37	72
2041 Warner Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,001 (-10%)	0mo	$24,000	$24	70
930 Belmont Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,083 (-3%)	6mo	$22,300	$21	64
838 Belmont Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,183 (+6%)	18mo	$138,000	$117	53
2029 Winans Ave	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	992 (-11%)	1mo	$30,000	$30	49
149 E Linsey Blvd	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,253 (+13%)	0mo	$50,000	$40	40
1009 Oak St	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,269 (+14%)	4mo	$17,000	$13	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.66×
• Total profit: $40,287
• Equity at exit: $2,013

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 28.73×
• Total profit: $104,826
• Equity at exit: $1,167

Cash invested: $3,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48503

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$71
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$17 /mo · $202/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $118

Max offer price $13,500

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,375
• Closing costs: $405
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 Lippincott Blvd Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$695	$0.87	13d	1	0.37mi
501 S Meade St Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$695	$0.82	13d	1	1.44mi
912 Waldman Ave Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	1223	$675	$0.55	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $13,500 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $13,500 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $13,500 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $13,500 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $13,500 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $13,500 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $14,999 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $14,999 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $14,999 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $16,999 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $16,999 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $16,999 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $16,999 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $17,999 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $18,999 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $18,999 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $18,999 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-03-06
    listed $23,900 Active
19. 2026-03-06
    listed $23,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$756
• − Property taxes: −$202
• − Insurance: −$68
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$836
• − Management: −$836
• − Depreciation: −$393
• Taxable income: $7,356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,766
• After-tax cash flow: $5,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flint School District
• NCES district ID: 2614520
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $25,954
• Composite: 10.97/100
• National rank: #14642
• State rank: #714 of 760 in MI

Livability — Flint

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4946

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flint, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 93,814
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 22,347
• Household income: $44,411
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1293.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 36% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Arabic 4% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.84%
• Current HPI: 130.1152
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.35%
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $23,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $23,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $953 · +25.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.