26583 Escapade Ln · White Branch, MO 65355

$184,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Other public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1967 0.33 ac lot $38/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked near the water in Warsaw, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offers an easy lake-area lifestyle with room to relax and make it your own. Inside, enjoy one-level living with updated finishes, LVP and laminate flooring, a wood-burning fireplace, and mini-split heating and cooling. The screened porch adds a cozy spot for morning coffee, quiet evenings, or weekend unwinding. Set on a . 33-acre lot with a metal roof, shared well, septic, and Co-Mo internet, this home also offers subdivision amenities including beach access, boat ramp, playground, dock access, and road maintenance. A welcoming full-time home or weekend getaway near Warsaw.

Key facts

• One-level living
• Screened porch
• Beach access

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• SCREENED PORCH
• BEACH ACCESS
• BOAT RAMP
• DOCK ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $450 (approximately $37.50/month); Community playground

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking (no garage)
• Utilities: Well water (shared well); Septic tank
• Home design: Single family detached residence; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built with metal roof
• Exterior features: Screened, enclosed porch; Porch; Metal roof; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wood-burning fireplace for heat; Ductless cooling; Attic fan
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Storm windows; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in White Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lincoln R-II (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #91 of 324 in MO (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elem. (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 260 students, 60% FRL); Lincoln High (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #218 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 253 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $125,658 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $38,955
• Equity at exit: $109,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $122,590
• Equity at exit: $193,038

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $492/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,418

Max offer price $161,405

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-76	+0% $-128	+5% $-180	+10% $-232
Rent	-10% $-227	-5% $-178	+0% $-128	+5% $-78	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-81	base $-128	+0.5pp $-176	+1.0pp $-224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternet

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $184,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $184,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $184,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $184,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,000 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    listed $184,000 Active
19. 2025-08-20
    listed $155,000 Active
20. 2024-07-11
    listed $195,000 Active
21. 1984-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,785 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,293/yr (+$108/mo · 262.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$492
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,206
• − Management: −$1,206
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$4,862
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,167
• After-tax cash flow: $-368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln R-II
• NCES district ID: 2918670
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $35,713
• Composite: 38.49/100
• National rank: #4182
• State rank: #91 of 324 in MO

Livability — White Branch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $184,000 LOBR
• 2025-08-20 Listed $155,000 WCAR
• 2024-07-11 Listed $195,000 WCAR
• 1984-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $492 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.