816 S 5th St · Smithfield, NC 27577

$157,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1930 9,626 sqft lot Est $235k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Investment Opportunity in Smithfield! 2 Bed 1 Bath with unpermitted Half Bath. Large Kitchen with tons of cabinet space and Refrigerator. HVAC 2014. Property is being sold as is.

Key facts

• Hvac 2014
• Cabinet space
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• CABINET SPACE
• REFRIGERATOR
• HVAC 2014

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story house; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen and dining room combined
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.5% in Smithfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#259 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smithfield Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #385 of 475 statewide, top 81%, 501 students, 99% FRL); Smithfield-Selma High (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #454 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,503 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 41% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Johnston County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $158k implies a 570% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.18%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,572
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
816 S 5th St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,388 (0%)	0mo	$155,000	$112	100
812 East St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (+1%)	12mo	$250,000	$178	59
515 E Woodall St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,360 (-2%)	11mo	$147,000	$108	59
912 S Walnut Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,442 (+4%)	1mo	$200,000	$139	57
910 West St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+2%)	12mo	$270,000	$191	57
701 East St Unit A	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,284 (-8%)	3mo	$270,000	$210	56
905 S 1st St	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,205 (-13%)	11mo	$215,000	$178	53
111 S 5th St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,417 (+2%)	8mo	$239,000	$169	52
404 Forbes Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,209 (-13%)	2mo	$155,000	$128	49
710 S 2nd St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+13%)	8mo	$255,000	$162	49
514 E Lee St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,194 (-14%)	13mo	$140,000	$117	46
105 E Stevens St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,220 (-12%)	0mo	$275,000	$225	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,965
• Equity at exit: $23,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $827
• Equity at exit: $13,618

Cash invested: $44,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27577

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,028/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,237

Max offer price $157,500

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,375
• Closing costs: $4,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 Crump St Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,800	$1.62	23d	1	0.15mi
204 E Davis St Smithfield, NC	3.0	1.0	1426	$1,350	$0.95	4d	1	0.45mi
105 W Langdon Ave Unit B Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	17d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $157,500 Active
3. 1995-06-01
   soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$264/yr (+$22/mo · 25.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,822
• − Property taxes: −$1,028
• − Insurance: −$788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,597
• − Management: −$1,597
• − Depreciation: −$4,582
• Taxable income: $1,552
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$372
• After-tax cash flow: $3,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Smithfield

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #11380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithfield, NC
• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• City population: 28,354
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 28,354
• Household income: $62,758
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 919.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.11%
• Current HPI: 232.1552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+570.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $157,500 TMLS
• 1995-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,028 · +65.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.