1021 Aberdeen Dr Unit E · Leisure Village East, NJ 08701

$122,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 663 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Built 1971 Fair condition 435 sqft lot $185/sqft · 22% below area Est $157k · 22% under $319/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own in the highly desirable gated 55+ community of Leisure Village East! Charming 1 Bedroom Eton model in a beautiful private location. Some features include spacious screened in porch, newer windows, and a newer washer and dryer. Move in ready, just add your own personal finishing touches! Enjoy premier amenities including a clubhouse with loads of activities , fitness center, golf course, pool, fishing and much much more! Conveniently located near GSP, shopping, dining and beaches!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Screened in porch
• Fitness center

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEWER WASHER AND DRYER
• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $123k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.5% in Leisure Village East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#518 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 419 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,526 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.59%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,131
• List price: $122,900
• Delta: -21.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1019A Aberdeen Dr	0.02mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	4mo	$145,000	$219	96
1034 Aberdeen Dr Unit E	0.08mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	8mo	$169,000	$255	90
944F Aberdeen Dr	0.18mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	4mo	$127,500	$192	88
949 Aberdeen Dr Unit B	0.21mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	10mo	$135,200	$204	82
1118A Argyll Cir	0.19mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	18mo	$155,000	$234	76
1244D Hamilton Ct	0.30mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	12mo	$162,000	$244	76
885A Inverness Ct	0.36mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	11mo	$158,000	$238	74
1175D Clydebank Ct Unit D	0.65mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	0mo	$117,500	$177	69
1175C Clydebank Ct	0.65mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	6mo	$102,500	$155	64
1257B Argyll Cir	0.45mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	19mo	$150,000	$226	63
873C Balmoral Ct	0.63mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	14mo	$150,000	$226	59
875C Balmoral Ct	0.65mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	18mo	$143,000	$216	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,005
• Equity at exit: $18,325

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $17,617
• Equity at exit: $10,626

Cash invested: $34,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$154 /mo · $1,844/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$319
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,479

Max offer price $122,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,725
• Closing costs: $3,687
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
829A Balmoral Ct Unit 1001 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	24d	1	0.58mi
219 Buckingham Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,900	$2.87	43d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $319 · $3,828/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $122,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $122,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $122,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,900 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,900 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $122,900 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Great opportunity to own in the highly desirable gated 55+ community of Leisure Village East! Charming 1 Bedroom Eton model in a beautiful private location. Some features include spacious screened in porch, newer windows, and a newer washer and dryer. Move in ready, just add your own personal finishing touches! Enjoy premier amenities including a clubhouse with loads of activities , fitness center, golf course, pool, fishing and much much more! Conveniently located near GSP, shopping, dining and beaches!

16. 2026-04-15
    price $129,900 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Great opportunity to own in the highly desirable gated 55+ community of Leisure Village East! Charming 1 Bedroom Eton model in a beautiful private location. Some features include spacious screened in porch, newer windows, and a newer washer and dryer. Move in ready, just add your own personal finishing touches! Enjoy premier amenities including a clubhouse with loads of activities , fitness center, golf course, pool, fishing and much much more! Conveniently located near GSP, shopping, dining and beaches!

17. 2026-04-02
    listed $132,900 Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Great opportunity to own in the highly desirable gated 55+ community of Leisure Village East! Charming 1 Bedroom Eton model in a beautiful private location. Some features include spacious screened in porch, newer windows, and a newer washer and dryer. Move in ready, just add your own personal finishing touches! Enjoy premier amenities including a clubhouse with loads of activities , fitness center, golf course, pool, fishing and much much more! Conveniently located near GSP, shopping, dining and beaches!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,844
• − Insurance: −$614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,719
• − Management: −$1,719
• − HOA: −$3,828
• − Depreciation: −$3,575
• Taxable income: $1,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$313
• After-tax cash flow: $2,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires significant repairs to the exterior and foundation, but has potential for a moderate renovation to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed brick foundation — Structural damage
• Major Debris near foundation — Structural damage
• Major Damaged siding — Structural damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both New exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both New flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and durability
• Both New windows — Improves energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed brick foundation · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Debris near foundation · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Damaged siding · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both New flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and durability ↑
• Both New windows — Improves energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village East

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #22166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village East, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5757.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $122,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $129,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $132,900 MOMLS