5425 Corduroy Rd · Denton, TX 76249

$273,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · Land · 350 Days on market

Built 2025 $191/sqft · at area comps Est $284k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Laundry room
• Front porch

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• HICKORY GROVE COMMUNITY
• FRONT PORCH
• COAT CLOSET
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 350 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $224,508 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 350 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.59%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,369
• List price: $273,990
• Delta: -3.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-33,996
• Equity at exit: $40,853

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-16,602
• Equity at exit: $23,690

Cash invested: $76,717 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76249

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $685/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,036

Max offer price $273,990

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,498
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5533 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$2,100	$1.34	5d	1	0.08mi
5544 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,100	$1.46	5d	1	0.11mi
5568 Corduroy Rd Krum, TX	4.0	2.5	1568	$2,100	$1.34	5d	1	0.16mi
5552 Rollins Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	22d	1	0.17mi
1106 Spring Flower Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	44d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $273,990 Active 350 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $273,990 Active 349 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $273,990 Active 348 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $273,990 Active 347 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $273,990 Active 345 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $273,990 Active 344 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $273,990 Active 341 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $273,990 Active 340 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $273,990 Active 339 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $273,990 Active 336 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $273,990 Active 335 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $273,990 Active 334 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $273,990 Active 333 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $273,990 Active 332 DOM
15. 2025-10-22
    historical
16. 2025-10-12
    price $273,990
17. 2025-10-12
    price $273,990
18. 2025-08-06
    price $283,990
19. 2025-08-04
    price $283,990
20. 2025-07-03
    listed $280,990 Active
21. 2025-07-02
    listed $280,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $685 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,014 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,329/yr (+$361/mo · 632.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$685
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$2,743
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$658
• After-tax cash flow: $2,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,637
• Household income: $120,169
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 134.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.45%
• Current HPI: 276.067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-12 Price Changed $273,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-12 Price Changed $273,990 NTREIS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $283,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $283,990 NTREIS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $280,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Listed $280,990 NTREIS