104 Pelican Ave · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2022 7,315 sqft lot $185/sqft · 26% above area Est $198k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this cutie in the heart of Arnasas Pass. 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home that has been very well maintained. It has several extra closets for storage and extra room in the garage for storage. Come enjoy the eat in kitchen overlooking the beautiful backyard with trees. Do not miss an opportunity to own this home!

Key facts

• Dishwasher
• Refrigerator
• Stucco exterior

Tags

• STUCCO EXTERIOR
• INSIDE LAUNDRY
• REFRIGERATOR
• DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking surface; 2 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single-story; Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built with stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; 1 story
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceramic tile and tile flooring; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $968 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.61%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,678
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: 26.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Misty	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,339 (-1%)	4mo	$210,000	$157	84
119 Misty Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-6%)	4mo	$249,500	$197	74
936 S Houston St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-2%)	1mo	$229,900	$173	73
101 Saunders Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-11%)	9mo	$220,000	$182	71
1034 S 10th St	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,312 (-3%)	5mo	$179,900	$137	68
108 Spoonbill Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,185 (-12%)	11mo	$209,000	$176	67
1179 Houston S	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+3%)	9mo	$235,000	$168	66
102 Mallard Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,186 (-12%)	11mo	$215,000	$181	64
110 Mallard	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,184 (-12%)	12mo	$210,000	$177	64
243 E Magnolia Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-2%)	2mo	$249,000	$188	63
630 S Lamont	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-6%)	1mo	$229,000	$180	61
1500 Kenwood Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,459 (+8%)	4mo	$240,000	$164	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $21,242
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $98,181
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,445 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,062/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $968

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,219

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1131 S 8th St Unit 1268400P Aransas Pass, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$4,105	$3.21	43d	1	0.19mi
1109 W Nelson Ave Aransas Pass, TX	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	43d	1	0.79mi
2255 McMullen Ln Aransas Pass, TX	2.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$1,569	$0.99	13d	9	1.29mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-02
    listed $249,900 Active 284-char remark
18. 2016-05-13
    historical 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Come check out this cutie in the heart of Arnasas Pass. 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home that has been very well maintained. It has several extra closets for storage and extra room in the garage for storage. Come enjoy the eat in kitchen overlooking the beautiful backyard with trees. Do not miss an opportunity to own this home!

19. 2016-04-05
    soldstatus
20. 2016-04-04
    soldstatus Closed 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Come check out this cutie in the heart of Arnasas Pass. 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home that has been very well maintained. It has several extra closets for storage and extra room in the garage for storage. Come enjoy the eat in kitchen overlooking the beautiful backyard with trees. Do not miss an opportunity to own this home!

21. 2016-03-03
    status Pending 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Come check out this cutie in the heart of Arnasas Pass. 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home that has been very well maintained. It has several extra closets for storage and extra room in the garage for storage. Come enjoy the eat in kitchen overlooking the beautiful backyard with trees. Do not miss an opportunity to own this home!

22. 2016-02-23
    historical Option Period 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Come check out this cutie in the heart of Arnasas Pass. 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home that has been very well maintained. It has several extra closets for storage and extra room in the garage for storage. Come enjoy the eat in kitchen overlooking the beautiful backyard with trees. Do not miss an opportunity to own this home!

23. 2016-01-26
    listed $106,900 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Come check out this cutie in the heart of Arnasas Pass. 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home that has been very well maintained. It has several extra closets for storage and extra room in the garage for storage. Come enjoy the eat in kitchen overlooking the beautiful backyard with trees. Do not miss an opportunity to own this home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,062 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$511/yr (+$43/mo · 12.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,062
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,307
• − Management: −$3,307
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $8,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,955
• After-tax cash flow: $9,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+133.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $249,900 CBMLS
• 2016-05-13 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2016-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-04-04 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2016-03-03 Pending — CBMLS
• 2016-02-23 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2016-01-26 Listed $106,900 CBMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,062 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.