217 N Park Ave · Karnes City, TX 78118

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · Manufactured public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1940 10,323 sqft lot $124/sqft · 17% below area Est $128k · 33% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**UPDATED AND READY** 3 LOTS INCLUDED IN THIS SALE - LOTS 5, 6, AND 7 - OFFERING INCREDIBLE OPPORTUNITY AND FLEXIBILITY. THIS PROPERTY FEATURES A 2-BEDROOM LAYOUT OR CAN BE UTILIZED AS AN EFFICIENCY, DEPENDING ON YOUR NEEDS. THERE IS ONE FULL BATHROOM, MAKING THE HOME COMFORTABLE AND LIVABLE FOR BOTH OWNER-OCCUPANTS AND TENANTS. RECENT UPDATES INCLUDE NEW FLOORING, UPDATED BASEBOARDS, RENOVATED BATHROOM AND STORAGE ROOM, FRESH INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR PAINT, AND UPDATED HARDWARE THROUGHOUT THE HOME - ADDING A CLEAN, MODERN TOUCH. SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL TO EXPAND THE EXISTING STRUCTURE OR BUILD AN ADDITIONAL HOME ON THE EXTRA LOTS. BUYER TO OBTAIN SURVEY TO VERIFY LOT DIMENSIONS AND BOUNDARIES. DON'T MISS THIS UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A CORNER LOT INVESTMENT PROPERTY WITH MULTIPLE POSSIBILITIES.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Renovated bathroom
• 3 lots included

Tags

• 3 LOTS INCLUDED
• RECENT UPDATES
• RENOVATED BATHROOM
• CORNER LOT INVESTMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($852 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#627 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Karnes City ISD (town): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #665 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Karnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Karnes County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.73%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,757
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -33.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $24,654
• Equity at exit: $41,861

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $68,158
• Equity at exit: $67,499

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78118

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $852 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $224/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $633

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-03-25
    listed $85,000 New 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    **UPDATED AND READY** 3 LOTS INCLUDED IN THIS SALE - LOTS 5, 6, AND 7 - OFFERING INCREDIBLE OPPORTUNITY AND FLEXIBILITY. THIS PROPERTY FEATURES A 2-BEDROOM LAYOUT OR CAN BE UTILIZED AS AN EFFICIENCY, DEPENDING ON YOUR NEEDS. THERE IS ONE FULL BATHROOM, MAKING THE HOME COMFORTABLE AND LIVABLE FOR BOTH OWNER-OCCUPANTS AND TENANTS. RECENT UPDATES INCLUDE NEW FLOORING, UPDATED BASEBOARDS, RENOVATED BATHROOM AND STORAGE ROOM, FRESH INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR PAINT, AND UPDATED HARDWARE THROUGHOUT THE HOME - ADDING A CLEAN, MODERN TOUCH. SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL TO EXPAND THE EXISTING STRUCTURE OR BUILD AN ADDITIONAL HOME ON THE EXTRA LOTS. BUYER TO OBTAIN SURVEY TO VERIFY LOT DIMENSIONS AND BOUNDARIES. DON'T MISS THIS UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A CORNER LOT INVESTMENT PROPERTY WITH MULTIPLE POSSIBILITIES.

16. 2026-03-23
    historical
17. 2025-12-18
    status Back on Market
18. 2025-10-15
    status Pending
19. 2025-05-26
    price $85,000
20. 2025-01-24
    price $95,000
21. 2025-01-04
    listed $110,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $224 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,332/yr (+$111/mo · 594.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$224
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$818
• − Management: −$818
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$169
• After-tax cash flow: $1,910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Karnes City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825140
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,808
• Composite: 24.12/100
• National rank: #7752
• State rank: #665 of 826 in TX

Livability — Karnes City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #11963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Karnes City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,097

Population outlook (Karnes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,734 people
• By 2030: 18,027 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 20,893 · +24.9%
• By 2050: 23,689 · +41.6%
• By 2075: 31,064 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 34,752 · +107.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 30% Two or more races 25% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Karnes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.1) · D 20.7% · R 78.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -58.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.1 2020: R+52.1 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+35.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Current HPI: 87.2904
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $85,000 LERA
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-12-18 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-10-15 Pending — LERA
• 2025-05-26 Price Changed $85,000 LERA
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $95,000 LERA
• 2025-01-04 Listed $110,000 LERA

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $224 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.