7151 Thornley Dr · New Orleans, LA 70126

$149,999

7 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,192 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1975 8,999 sqft lot $47/sqft · 41% below area Est $253k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Lake Willow Subdivision, this 3,192 SF home (7BR / 3.5BA) offers a large floor plan with second-level lake views. The property is fully gutted and ready for renovation, providing an opportunity for an investor or builder to complete the interior. The home also includes a spacious backyard.The property is situated in Flood Zone X. Recent sales in the subdivision indicate potential resale value for larger renovated homes, depending on the scope and finish of improvements. Back on the market due to buyer financing.

Key facts

• Fully gutted
• Spacious backyard
• 8,999 sq ft lot

Tags

• SECOND-LEVEL LAKE VIEWS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• FULLY GUTTED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.4% in New Orleans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in LA, #1,383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D.
• Orleans Parish (urban): math 11% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #69 of 98 in LA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 710 units permitted in Orleans Parish in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,208/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 1767% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $103k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,499 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.55%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,235
• List price: $149,999
• Delta: -40.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7130 Neptune Ct	0.32mi	6/3.5 (-1)	3,449 (+8%)	2mo	$160,500	$47	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,235
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $24,132
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70126

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,370/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $548

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,514

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,999 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,999 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,999 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,999 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,999 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,999 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,999 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,999 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,999 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,999 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,999 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $149,999 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Located in the Lake Willow Subdivision, this 3,192 SF home (7BR / 3.5BA) offers a large floor plan with second-level lake views. The property is fully gutted and ready for renovation, providing an opportunity for an investor or builder to complete the interior. The home also includes a spacious backyard. The property is situated in Flood Zone X. Recent sales in the subdivision indicate potential resale value for larger renovated homes, depending on the scope and finish of improvements. Back on the market due to buyer financing.

16. 2026-05-20
    price $149,999 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Located in the Lake Willow Subdivision, this 3,192 SF home (7BR / 3.5BA) offers a large floor plan with second-level lake views. The property is fully gutted and ready for renovation, providing an opportunity for an investor or builder to complete the interior. The home also includes a spacious backyard. The property is situated in Flood Zone X. Recent sales in the subdivision indicate potential resale value for larger renovated homes, depending on the scope and finish of improvements. Back on the market due to buyer financing.

17. 2026-03-13
    listed $175,000 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Located in the Lake Willow Subdivision, this 3,192 SF home (7BR / 3.5BA) offers a large floor plan with second-level lake views. The property is fully gutted and ready for renovation, providing an opportunity for an investor or builder to complete the interior. The home also includes a spacious backyard. The property is situated in Flood Zone X. Recent sales in the subdivision indicate potential resale value for larger renovated homes, depending on the scope and finish of improvements. Back on the market due to buyer financing.

18. 2026-03-13
    listed $175,000 Active 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Located in the Lake Willow Subdivision, this 3,192 SF home (7BR / 3.5BA) offers a large floor plan with second-level lake views. The property is fully gutted and ready for renovation, providing an opportunity for an investor or builder to complete the interior. The home also includes a spacious backyard. The property is situated in Flood Zone X. Recent sales in the subdivision indicate potential resale value for larger renovated homes, depending on the scope and finish of improvements. Back on the market due to buyer financing.

19. 2025-08-08
    listed $180,000 Active
20. 2025-01-06
    price $213,000
21. 2025-01-06
    price $213,000
22. 2024-11-11
    listed $270,000 Active
23. 2024-09-19
    soldstatus $103,000
24. 2010-06-07
    soldstatus $90,000
25. 2010-05-21
    soldstatus $90,000
26. 2009-11-17
    listed $98,000
27. 2009-11-17
    listed $98,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,370 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,370 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,370
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $4,570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,097
• After-tax cash flow: $5,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orleans Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201170
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -52.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -46.00%
• Median HH income: $37,011
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9271
• State rank: #69 of 98 in LA

Livability — New Orleans

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment D Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Orleans, LA
• County: Orleans Parish · 338,817 people
• City population: 338,817
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 27,047
• Household income: $41,709
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1767.0

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 513,025 people
• By 2030: 575,781 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 700,174 · +36.5%
• By 2050: 826,541 · +61.1%
• By 2075: 1,123,374 · +119.0%
• By 2100: 1,355,609 · +164.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% White 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+67.0) · D 82.2% · R 15.2% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.7pp toward D · 2008: 60.3pp · 2024: 67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+67.0 2020: D+68.2 2016: D+66.2 2012: D+62.5 2008: D+60.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.35%
• Current HPI: 177.355
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+53.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $149,999 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $149,999 GSREIN
• 2026-03-13 Listed $175,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-13 Listed $175,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $180,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $213,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $213,000 GSREIN
• 2024-11-11 Listed $270,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2010-05-21 Sold (MLS) $90,000 GSREIN
• 2009-11-17 Listed $98,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-11-17 Listed $98,000 GSREIN

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,370 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.