8412 Big Oak Dr #170 · Citrus Heights, CA 95610

$142,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 1973 $102/sqft · 16% above area Est $123k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath 1400 sq ft Budger mobile home located in a desirable 55+ senior community. This inviting residence features spacious bedrooms, a well-appointed kitchen with a gas stove, and an abundance of windows that fill the home with natural light. Enjoy year-round relaxation in the enclosed sunroom, or step outside to a charming, fully fenced yard for unwinding in your own private outdoor space. A yard of this size complete with storage shed is hard to find! The home also offers RARE tandem covered parking, providing convenience and protection for multiple vehicles. Designed with comfort and accessibility in mind, this property includes a power

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1973
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer; 220-volt outlet in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in-park, double wide; Single-story (double wide); Built in 1973; Metal roof
• Construction: Metal skirting; Manufactured home by Budger Homes (Make: Budger)
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Fenced lot; Covered deck/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Gas cook top; Range hood; Microwave; Dishwasher; Ice maker; Pantry cabinet
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tub and shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Great room; Formal dining area; Pantry cabinet; Covered, enclosed porch/patio with carpeted deck; Storage area; Pets allowed (with number and size limits)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry hookups; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $945 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $988 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.35%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,826
• List price: $142,900
• Delta: 16.34%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8412 Big Oak Dr #170	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,400 (0%)	0mo	$142,000	$101	100
8321 Driftwood Ln	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	1mo	$122,500	$91	91
8323 Oak Front Ln	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-2%)	5mo	$159,000	$116	90
8003 Oakside Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,400 (0%)	9mo	$85,000	$61	87
8007 Creekfront Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	6mo	$125,000	$87	84
8009 Creekfront Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	9mo	$115,840	$86	81
8001 Creekfront Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	11mo	$155,000	$108	80
8307 Big Oak Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	15mo	$168,000	$117	76
8346 Big Oak Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+5%)	10mo	$163,000	$111	75
8351 Cedarwood Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,365 (-2%)	14mo	$120,000	$88	72
8344 Big Oak Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,228 (-12%)	1mo	$162,500	$132	70
8351 Big Oak Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	6mo	$135,000	$113	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $39,496
• Equity at exit: $21,307

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $122,162
• Equity at exit: $12,355

Cash invested: $40,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95610

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$749
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $302/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $945

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,056

Max offer price $142,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,725
• Closing costs: $4,287
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7898 Claypool Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,500	$1.90	18d	1	0.17mi
8208 Charlotte Ave Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,750	$1.96	7d	1	0.68mi
7517 Saint Philomena Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	1.5	1100	$2,500	$2.27	15d	1	0.80mi
1519 Pine Valley Cir Roseville, CA	3.0	2.0	1577	$2,750	$1.74	10d	1	0.83mi
8629 El Sobrante Way Orangevale, CA	3.0	2.0	1117	$2,500	$2.24	44d	1	0.86mi
1911 Wildwood Way Apt 1 Roseville, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,595	$1.77	2d	1	1.00mi
8237 Sunrise Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,095	$2.00	7d	1	1.11mi
7849 Sunrise Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$1,800	$2.14	7d	1	1.19mi
1812A S Cirby Way Unit B Roseville, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,300	$2.30	2d	1	1.20mi
7024 Allenwood Ct Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1672	$3,400	$2.03	44d	1	1.22mi
7840 Antelope Rd Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,675	$1.99	44d	1	1.25mi
7429 Sunrise Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.5	1319	$2,000	$1.52	44d	1	1.35mi
7856 Old Auburn Rd Apt 8 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.5	950	$1,395	$1.47	20d	1	1.36mi
7444 Tiara Way Unit D Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,850	$1.81	44d	1	1.36mi
7441 Tiara Way Unit A Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	894	$1,295	$1.45	24d	1	1.41mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $302 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,086 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$784/yr (+$65/mo · 260.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,005
• − Property taxes: −$302
• − Insurance: −$714
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$4,157
• Taxable income: $9,528
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,287
• After-tax cash flow: $9,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Citrus Heights

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #19580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Heights, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 89,370
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,928
• Household income: $83,327
• Rent vs Own: 47.1% rent · 52.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1772.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 3% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Subsaharan African 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -367.16%
• Current HPI: 325.0105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.09%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $302 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.