226-228 Francis St · Watertown, NY 13601

$145,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,694 sqft · Townhouse public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1917 7,200 sqft lot $86/sqft · at area comps Est $143k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Duplex in the City of Watertown! Each unit features 2 bedrooms & 1 bathroom with an up/down setup. Located on the bend of a quiet city street, it would make a great investment property, or live in one side and let income from the other pay the bills. Conveniently located near Downtown, and just minutes to Fort Drum. Contact an agent day today for details, or to setup a showing.

Key facts

• Built 1917
• Listed 139 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.68%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,434
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 1.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $10,502
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $81,777
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,298/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,176

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
611 Cooper St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,495	$1.26	43d	1	0.36mi
377 W Main St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1991	$1,350	$0.68	43d	1	0.60mi
123 State Pl Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	43d	1	0.68mi
1029 Gill St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	43d	1	0.77mi
911 State St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$995	$0.83	43d	1	0.83mi
621 Academy St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,600	$0.97	43d	1	0.86mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	43d	1	0.88mi
256 Michigan Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,626	$1.13	43d	9	0.99mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 120 DOM
17. 2026-01-30
    listed $145,000 Active 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Duplex in the City of Watertown! Each unit features 2 bedrooms & 1 bathroom with an up/down setup. Located on the bend of a quiet city street, it would make a great investment property, or live in one side and let income from the other pay the bills. Conveniently located near Downtown, and just minutes to Fort Drum. Contact an agent day today for details, or to setup a showing.

18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-05-27
    listed $145,000 Active
20. 2025-04-27
    historical
21. 2024-05-10
    listed $145,000 Active
22. 2024-04-27
    historical
23. 2023-09-10
    listed $110,000 Active
24. 2023-09-02
    historical
25. 2022-09-01
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,298 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,874 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$576/yr (+$48/mo · 44.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,298
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $2,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$607
• After-tax cash flow: $4,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+31.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $145,000 CNYIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-05-27 Listed $145,000 CNYIS
• 2025-04-27 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-05-10 Listed $145,000 CNYIS
• 2024-04-27 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2023-09-10 Listed $110,000 CNYIS
• 2023-09-02 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2022-09-01 Listed $110,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,298 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.