1126 W 5th St · Erie, PA 16507

$154,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1925 5,663 sqft lot Est $132k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 story NW Erie close to Bayfront Highway, 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, all original woodwork, nice hardwood under carpets, built-in cabinets in kitchen, big back yard, enclosed front porch, enclosed back shed, partially finished attic and other side is for storage. Sold "As-Is".

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Quartz counter tops
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• UPDATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-1
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; 4 parking spaces
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof; Built-in basement (full, unfinished)
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Porch; Paved road/drive

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Decorative fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 39 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,538/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 776% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $155k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $153,751 (0.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.23%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,824
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1156 W 5th St	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,244 (+1%)	3mo	$133,600	$107	90
521 Raspberry St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,232 (0%)	2mo	$100,000	$81	90
1139 W 5th St	0.03mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,232 (0%)	5mo	$35,000	$28	89
1133 W 5th St	0.03mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,232 (0%)	12mo	$85,000	$69	82
715 Japan St	0.24mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-4%)	2mo	$172,000	$146	74
1111 W 5th St	0.04mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,348 (+9%)	4mo	$165,000	$122	74
1011 W 6th St	0.20mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,280 (+4%)	7mo	$165,000	$129	73
1306 W 10 St	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,288 (+4%)	7mo	$159,000	$123	59
809 Liberty St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,130 (-8%)	2mo	$70,000	$62	56
1247 W 6th St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,077 (-13%)	12mo	$130,000	$121	54
517 W 3rd St	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,218 (-1%)	12mo	$120,000	$99	50
910 Weschler Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,408 (+14%)	9mo	$125,000	$89	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $33,858
• Equity at exit: $80,076

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $90,265
• Equity at exit: $132,214

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16507

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,218/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,344

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1164 W 7th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,600	$1.28	43d	1	0.19mi
923 Chestnut St Unit 2 Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	43d	1	0.96mi
1610 Poplar St Unit Downstairs Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$875	$0.73	43d	1	0.96mi
1837 W 9th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	43d	1	1.06mi
100 Erie Insurance Pl Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,425	$1.27	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 404-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $154,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,218 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,333 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$115/yr (+$10/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,218
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,476
• − Management: −$1,476
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$163
• After-tax cash flow: $1,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,597
• Household income: $33,361
• Rent vs Own: 66.2% rent · 33.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 24% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 163.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+93.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $154,900 GEBOR
• 2026-01-05 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $159,900 GEBOR
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $164,900 GEBOR
• 2025-10-28 Listed $166,900 GEBOR
• 2025-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 2025-06-02 Sold (MLS) $74,500 GEBOR
• 2025-05-05 Pending — GEBOR
• 2025-05-01 Listed $79,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,218 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.