156 Tiki Ln · Pittsburg, CA 94565

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Other · 114 Days on market

Built 2018 1,215 ac lot $160/sqft · 160% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained home in the Delta Hawaii 55+ community with an open floor plan with no wasted space. Cute porch area to enjoy with neighbors and friends as well as a BBQ area for outdoor entertaining. Spacious Kitchen/Living Room combo for entertaining. Kitchen has ample storage space and Stainless Steel appliances. The home features wider hallways and doorways, recessed lighting and updated finishes throughout. Bedrooms are spacious, Primary bedroom has a walk-in closet and double vanity. Carport can fit 2 cars. The Delta Hawaii community has a clubhouse, exercise room, swimming pool, ping pong, card tables, billiards, library of books & videos for use, and monthly events to socialize and meet your neighbors!

Key facts

• Ample storage space
• Open floor plan
• Wider hallways

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CUTE PORCH AREA
• AMPLE STORAGE SPACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WIDER HALLWAYS
• RECESSED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $205k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.4% in Pittsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#687 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Pittsburg Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,069 of 1,400 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.88%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,700
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: 159.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $24,277
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $84,019
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94565

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,043 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,033/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $1,044

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,721

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Meadowbrook Ave Pittsburg, CA	2.0	2.0	1122	$2,600	$2.32	43d	1	0.22mi
2221 Lynbrook Dr Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1365	$3,195	$2.34	43d	1	0.29mi
948 Golden Leaf Way Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1386	$3,400	$2.45	43d	1	0.36mi
1 Addison Ct Pittsburg, CA	4.0	2.5	1805	$3,295	$1.83	24d	1	0.37mi
500 Loveridge Cir Pittsburg, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	825	$2,940	$3.56	1d	10	0.46mi
110 Dias Cir Pittsburg, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	819	$2,895	$3.53	1d	15	0.46mi
3809 Lassen Dr Pittsburg, CA	3.0	1.5	1650	$2,995	$1.82	3d	1	0.59mi
240 Benjamin Ave Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1379	$3,139	$2.28	2d	1	0.66mi
4225 McFaul Dr Pittsburg, CA	4.0	2.0	1500	$4,100	$2.73	24d	1	0.73mi
60 Xena Ct Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.5	1805	$3,200	$1.77	43d	1	0.78mi
17 Lorraine Ave Pittsburg, CA	3.0	1.5	1180	$2,700	$2.29	18d	1	0.80mi
2205 E Leland Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,359	$2.79	1d	20	1.03mi
30 Castlewood Dr Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	793	$2,640	$3.33	1d	3	1.04mi
1353 Pine St Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,750	$2.01	5d	1	1.04mi
1341 Maple St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	1299	$2,550	$1.96	21d	1	1.04mi
1346 Redwood St Pittsburg, CA	3.0	1.5	1066	$2,915	$2.73	16d	1	1.08mi
706 E 12th St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	939	$2,490	$2.65	24d	1	1.15mi
706 E 12th St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	935	$2,490	$2.66	21d	1	1.15mi
99 Liberty Ct Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.5	1802	$3,600	$2.00	43d	1	1.15mi
1000 Pheasant Dr Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	879	$2,795	$3.18	24d	29	1.19mi
241 W Buchanan Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$2,660	$3.17	1d	13	1.23mi
34 Kingswood Dr Pittsburg, CA	4.0	2.0	1755	$3,900	$2.22	43d	1	1.38mi
322 E 8th St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	884	$2,495	$2.82	18d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    status Active 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    Well maintained home in the Delta Hawaii 55+ community with an open floor plan with no wasted space. Cute porch area to enjoy with neighbors and friends as well as a BBQ area for outdoor entertaining. Spacious Kitchen/Living Room combo for entertaining. Kitchen has ample storage space and Stainless Steel appliances. The home features wider hallways and doorways, recessed lighting and updated finishes throughout. Bedrooms are spacious, Primary bedroom has a walk-in closet and double vanity. Carport can fit 2 cars. The Delta Hawaii community has a clubhouse, exercise room, swimming pool, ping pong, card tables, billiards, library of books & videos for use, and monthly events to socialize and meet your neighbors!

16. 2026-03-30
    historical Active Under Contract 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    Well maintained home in the Delta Hawaii 55+ community with an open floor plan with no wasted space. Cute porch area to enjoy with neighbors and friends as well as a BBQ area for outdoor entertaining. Spacious Kitchen/Living Room combo for entertaining. Kitchen has ample storage space and Stainless Steel appliances. The home features wider hallways and doorways, recessed lighting and updated finishes throughout. Bedrooms are spacious, Primary bedroom has a walk-in closet and double vanity. Carport can fit 2 cars. The Delta Hawaii community has a clubhouse, exercise room, swimming pool, ping pong, card tables, billiards, library of books & videos for use, and monthly events to socialize and meet your neighbors!

17. 2026-02-24
    listed $225,000 Active 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    Well maintained home in the Delta Hawaii 55+ community with an open floor plan with no wasted space. Cute porch area to enjoy with neighbors and friends as well as a BBQ area for outdoor entertaining. Spacious Kitchen/Living Room combo for entertaining. Kitchen has ample storage space and Stainless Steel appliances. The home features wider hallways and doorways, recessed lighting and updated finishes throughout. Bedrooms are spacious, Primary bedroom has a walk-in closet and double vanity. Carport can fit 2 cars. The Delta Hawaii community has a clubhouse, exercise room, swimming pool, ping pong, card tables, billiards, library of books & videos for use, and monthly events to socialize and meet your neighbors!

18. 2025-09-09
    historical
19. 2025-08-20
    status Active
20. 2025-07-23
    status Pending
21. 2025-06-20
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$677/yr (+$56/mo · 65.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,033
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,921
• − Management: −$2,921
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $9,363
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,247
• After-tax cash flow: $10,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pittsburg Unified
• NCES district ID: 0630600
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,872
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #12238
• State rank: #1069 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pittsburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #687
• US rank: #20922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pittsburg, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 100,488
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 100,488
• Household income: $95,556
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3942.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 19% Asian 17% White 16% Black 13% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -478.40%
• Current HPI: 376.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $225,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-20 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-07-23 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-06-20 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,033 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.