1926 Welch Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$99,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1910 3,214 sqft lot Est $118k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

1926 Welch Ave - Affordable opportunity to own a 1/2 double in Niagara Falls. This home boasts solid bones, a tear-off roof from 2022, solid mechanicals, newer windows, and a full basement. With just a few personal touches, you can make this house your perfect home! Don't miss out on this incredible value.

Key facts

• 3,214 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1910

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Operating expense details: see remarks; Owner pays: other (see remarks); Rent includes: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Two or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Separate single gas meter for property; Separate single electric meter for property
• Home design: Single-story building; Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Existing (pre-owned) condition
• Construction: Built with vinyl siding; Block foundation; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes an eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One 1-bedroom unit (includes eat-in kitchen); One 2-bedroom unit (includes eat-in kitchen)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring in some areas
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; some areas vary; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,512/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 230% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $100k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.66%
• DSCR: 3.48
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 18th St	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,632 (-3%)	3mo	$115,000	$70	83
2421 Welch Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+4%)	11mo	$170,000	$97	70
614 20th St	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,570 (-7%)	1mo	$100,000	$64	68
1968 Cudaback Ave	0.16mi	4/3.0	1,848 (+9%)	8mo	$20,000	$11	66
555 25th St	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,619 (-4%)	7mo	$128,000	$79	65
2491 Cudaback Ave	0.46mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (+2%)	9mo	$77,000	$45	63
2615 Ferry Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,848 (+9%)	6mo	$115,000	$62	57
541 20th St	0.33mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,917 (+13%)	1mo	$112,000	$58	57
346 Portage Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (+15%)	4mo	$142,500	$73	54
2254 Grand Ave	0.61mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (+3%)	8mo	$149,000	$85	54
746 17th St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,475 (-13%)	1mo	$72,000	$49	50
2449 Grand Ave	0.63mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,918 (+14%)	4mo	$135,000	$70	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $66,480
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.88×
• Total profit: $164,437
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,459/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $1,297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 43%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$2,512
Total (2 units)			$2,512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	44d	1	0.31mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.32mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	2d	1	0.34mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.71mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.74mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.74mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.88mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	2d	1	0.88mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $99,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,459 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,574 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$115/yr (+$10/mo · 7.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,459
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,412
• − Management: −$2,412
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $14,860
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,567
• After-tax cash flow: $12,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 230.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+139.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-02 Sold (MLS) $65,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-04-06 Price Changed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-30 Listed $74,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-12-23 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $74,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-06-25 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 1994-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $41,649 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,459 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.