Dawn Plan · Wimauma, FL 33598

$348,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily · 505 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space for year-round outdoor lounging. The owner's suite is in the rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for overnight guests or residents needing additional privacy, as well as a flex space that can transform to meet the household's needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $348,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $387,260.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $348k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#699 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 858 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 505 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $276,236 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 505 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $387,260
• List price: $348,500
• Delta: -10.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5680 Red Kite Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,174 (0%)	12mo	$360,900	$166	82
5732 Yellow Hornbill Ave	0.10mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,344 (+8%)	11mo	$343,100	$146	66
5758 Purple Finch Ave	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,874 (-14%)	4mo	$318,950	$170	64
2211 Red Crossbill St	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,874 (-14%)	1mo	$334,850	$179	63
17311 Blue Walk St	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,145 (-1%)	20mo	$379,000	$177	63
6007 Ballast Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,314 (+6%)	0mo	$426,260	$184	58
5976 Ballast Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,005 (-8%)	1mo	$350,900	$175	52
2312 Scenic Park Loop	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,046 (-6%)	8mo	$334,955	$164	51
2422 White Ladyfish Rd	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,314 (+6%)	12mo	$411,387	$178	49
16869 Scuba Crest St	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,145 (-1%)	22mo	$444,900	$207	43
2429 White Ladyfish Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,021 (-7%)	10mo	$389,640	$193	40
2324 Scenic Park Loop	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,430 (+12%)	10mo	$373,815	$154	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-91,579
• Equity at exit: $69,115

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-142,009
• Equity at exit: $53,351

Cash invested: $108,433 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 65 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 35.5 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $340,990 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 48 d
• This list price: 57% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 858
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,762 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,031
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$484 /mo · $5,809/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,388

Max offer price $315,777

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-226	-5% $-360	+0% $-494	+5% $-628	+10% $-762
Rent	-10% $-712	-5% $-603	+0% $-494	+5% $-385	+10% $-276
Rate	-1.0pp $-299	-0.5pp $-396	base $-494	+0.5pp $-594	+1.0pp $-696

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,815
• Closing costs: $11,618
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5615 Red Kite Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2112	$3,000	$1.42	52d	1	0.06mi
2255 Blue Grosbeak Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,600	$1.39	11d	1	0.10mi
5757 Red Kite Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,630	$1.20	60d	1	0.20mi
5771 Red Kite Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,650	$1.20	73d	1	0.22mi
2215 Red Crossbill St Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,650	$1.20	38d	1	0.23mi
17224 Auburn Arch Loop Wimauma, FL	2.0–4.0	2.5	1517	$2,900	$1.91	7d	20	0.53mi
17247 Southern Haven Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,300	$1.39	7d	1	0.58mi
2467 White Ladyfish Rd Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,100	$1.40	73d	1	0.67mi
17042 Oval Rum Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,500	$1.65	67d	1	0.75mi
17029 Blister Wing Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,900	$1.25	34d	1	0.77mi
920 Lakeview Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$3,150	$1.92	7d	1	1.00mi
17134 White Mangrove Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,395	$1.24	73d	1	1.13mi
17132 White Mangrove Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,250	$1.44	42d	1	1.13mi
17132 White Mangrove Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,150	$1.38	7d	1	1.13mi
17132 White Mangrove Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,150	$1.38	25d	1	1.13mi
16634 Mooner Plank Cir Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	2035	$2,550	$1.25	73d	1	1.14mi
16701 Maude Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1785	$2,000	$1.12	38d	1	1.18mi
17138 Sunshine Mimosa St Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	2634	$2,349	$0.89	35d	1	1.18mi
16632 Grotto Steam Pl Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1695	$2,100	$1.24	18d	1	1.20mi
16636 Ancient Mariner Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,276	$1.39	42d	1	1.30mi
16638 Ancient Mariner Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,276	$1.39	71d	1	1.30mi
5091 Capri Harbor Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,201	$1.35	73d	1	1.31mi
5089 Capri Harbor Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,201	$1.35	73d	1	1.31mi
16616 Ancient Mariner Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,276	$1.39	71d	1	1.31mi
17345 White Mangrove Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	63d	1	1.31mi
5085 Capri Harbor Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,201	$1.35	73d	1	1.32mi
16656 Ancient Mariner Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,276	$1.39	19d	1	1.32mi
16610 Ancient Mariner Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,176	$1.33	73d	1	1.32mi
16660 Ancient Mariner Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,276	$1.39	73d	1	1.32mi
16611 Ancient Mariner Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,176	$1.33	69d	1	1.33mi
16676 Ancient Mariner Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,201	$1.35	73d	1	1.34mi
16665 Ancient Mariner Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,101	$1.29	73d	1	1.35mi
16667 Ancient Mariner Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,101	$1.29	73d	1	1.35mi
16671 Ancient Mariner Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,101	$1.29	73d	1	1.36mi
5017 Capri Harbor Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,101	$1.29	69d	1	1.37mi
5101 Sable Chime Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	2.5	2264	$3,300	$1.46	23d	1	1.39mi
5029 Sable Chime Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,995	$1.37	13d	1	1.39mi
5010 Capri Harbor Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,101	$1.29	73d	1	1.40mi
5008 Capri Harbor Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,101	$1.29	19d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $348,500 Active 505 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $348,500 Active 503 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $348,500 Active 502 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $348,500 Active 501 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $348,500 Active 500 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $348,500 Active 497 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $348,500 Active 495 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $348,500 Active 494 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $348,500 Active 492 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $348,500 Active 490 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $348,500 Active 489 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $348,500 Active 488 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $348,500 Active 487 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $348,500 Active 486 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $348,500 Active 483 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $348,500 Active 482 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $348,500 Active 481 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    price $348,000 Active 479 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $347,500 Active 479 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    pricedays on market $347,500 Active 478 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $347,000 Active 477 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $347,000 Active 476 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $347,000 Active 475 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $336,000 Active 473 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $336,000 Active 472 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    pricedays on market $336,000 Active 471 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $335,500 Active 469 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $335,500 Active 468 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $343,150 Active 467 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $343,150 Active 466 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $343,150 Active 465 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $343,150 Active 464 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $343,150 Active 463 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $343,150 Active 462 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $343,150 Active 460 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $343,150 Active 458 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $343,150 Active 457 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $343,150 Active 454 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $343,150 Active 453 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $343,150 Active 452 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $343,150 Active 451 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $343,150 Active 449 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $343,150 Active 448 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $343,150 Active 445 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $343,150 Active 444 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    price $343,150 Active 443 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $342,650 Active 443 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $342,650 Active 440 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $342,150 Active 439 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $342,150 Active 438 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,693
• − Property taxes: −$5,809
• − Insurance: −$1,936
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,652
• − Management: −$2,652
• − Depreciation: −$11,266
• Taxable loss: −$12,859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,086
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,870–$32,610 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wimauma Elementary School F FL #1,882/2,144 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Shields Middle School F FL #486/571 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Lennard High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Wimauma

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #699
• US rank: #14659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wimauma, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 32,820
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-65.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $341,650 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $341,150 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $340,650 Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $350,650 Zillow
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $350,150 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $349,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $344,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $343,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $340,400 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $338,400 Zillow
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $362,900 Zillow
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $360,900 Zillow
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $359,900 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Listed $999,999 Zillow