13860 Ventura Rd · Willis, TX 77318

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,658 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1982 9,435 sqft lot $133/sqft · 35% below area Est $340k · 35% under $106/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the charm of Lake Conroe living at 13860 Ventura Rd! Located in the sought-after Corinthian Point community, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and outdoor lifestyle. Residents enjoy access to a private boat ramp, marina, fishing piers, pool, clubhouse, and tennis, pickleball, and basketball courts. Inside, the spacious living room features vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and a cozy wood-burning fireplace, creating a warm and inviting gathering space. The open kitchen with island flows easily into the living and dining areas, making entertaining simple. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a large fenced backyard with room to relax, play, or even add a future pool. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway or a peaceful full-time retreat, this home offers the lifestyle so many people love about Lake Conroe. Come take a look and see why Corinthian Point is such a special place to call home.GRASS is virtually staged.

Key facts

• Private boat ramp
• Fishing piers
• Pool

Tags

• LAKE CONROE LIVING
• CORINTHIAN POINT COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• MARINA
• FISHING PIERS
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-153/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parmley El (math 39% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 625 students, 72% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,768
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -35.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15460 Paradise Point Dr	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,656 (-0%)	11mo	$444,000	$268	74
13991 Lakepoint Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+5%)	14mo	$319,000	$184	63
15692 Lakeway Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,836 (+11%)	9mo	$485,000	$264	61
15589 Corinthian Way	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,804 (+9%)	4mo	$323,000	$179	58
13051 Sorrento Bay Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,858 (+12%)	6mo	$327,990	$177	40
13242 Huck Finn St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+12%)	17mo	$129,995	$70	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-42,454
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-61,154
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,708/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,102

Max offer price $217,755

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $50	+0% $-13	+5% $-75	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-177	-5% $-95	+0% $-13	+5% $70	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $43	base $-13	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	0d	1	1.22mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	5d	1	1.44mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	5d	1	1.47mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-26
   price $220,000 978-char remark

   Show marketing remark (978 chars)

   Discover the charm of Lake Conroe living at 13860 Ventura Rd! Located in the sought-after Corinthian Point community, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and outdoor lifestyle. Residents enjoy access to a private boat ramp, marina, fishing piers, pool, clubhouse, and tennis, pickleball, and basketball courts. Inside, the spacious living room features vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and a cozy wood-burning fireplace, creating a warm and inviting gathering space. The open kitchen with island flows easily into the living and dining areas, making entertaining simple. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a large fenced backyard with room to relax, play, or even add a future pool. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway or a peaceful full-time retreat, this home offers the lifestyle so many people love about Lake Conroe. Come take a look and see why Corinthian Point is such a special place to call home.GRASS is virtually staged.

2. 2026-03-10
   listed $237,000 Active 978-char remark

   Show marketing remark (978 chars)

   Discover the charm of Lake Conroe living at 13860 Ventura Rd! Located in the sought-after Corinthian Point community, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and outdoor lifestyle. Residents enjoy access to a private boat ramp, marina, fishing piers, pool, clubhouse, and tennis, pickleball, and basketball courts. Inside, the spacious living room features vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and a cozy wood-burning fireplace, creating a warm and inviting gathering space. The open kitchen with island flows easily into the living and dining areas, making entertaining simple. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a large fenced backyard with room to relax, play, or even add a future pool. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway or a peaceful full-time retreat, this home offers the lifestyle so many people love about Lake Conroe. Come take a look and see why Corinthian Point is such a special place to call home.GRASS is virtually staged.

3. 2026-03-09
   historical
4. 2025-12-31
   price $242,000
5. 2025-11-19
   price $254,500
6. 2025-10-17
   listed $264,500 Active
7. 2025-09-05
   historical
8. 2025-07-12
   price $269,000
9. 2025-06-23
   listed $279,000 Active
10. 2025-06-23
    historical
11. 2025-06-05
    listed $285,000 Active
12. 2020-11-10
    soldstatus
13. 2020-11-06
    soldstatus Sold
14. 2020-10-03
    status Pending
15. 2020-09-22
    status Option Pending
16. 2020-09-07
    status Active
17. 2020-08-31
    status Option Pending
18. 2020-07-02
    listed $189,000 Active
19. 2008-05-16
    soldstatus
20. 2008-01-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,708 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$27/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,708
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,002
• − Management: −$2,002
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$907
• After-tax cash flow: $755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $237,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $242,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $254,500 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $264,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2020-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-10-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-09-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-09-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-08-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-02 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2008-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-01-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,708 · -23.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.