831 Cedar Dr · Mesquite, TX 75149

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1954 7,318 sqft lot $140/sqft · 25% below area Est $181k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity! Come and See!

Key facts

• 7,318 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($310/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,628
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -25.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
807 Oak Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	932 (-3%)	18mo	$210,000	$225	67
431 S Locust St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+8%)	11mo	$260,000	$250	50
717 Dranguet Cir	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,010 (+5%)	19mo	$249,900	$247	46
542 W Kearney St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	910 (-5%)	22mo	$229,500	$252	34
415 W Kimbrough St	0.69mi	1/1.0 (-1)	896 (-7%)	23mo	$125,000	$140	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-24,045
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-33,593
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75149

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,451 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,276/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,418

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
940 Military Pkwy Mesquite, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$960	$1.45	3d	1	0.37mi
940 W Kearney St Mesquite, TX	1.0	2.0	779	$1,000	$1.28	44d	1	0.66mi
701 Lee St Unit 2A Mesquite, TX	2.0	1.5	1073	$1,600	$1.49	13d	1	0.76mi
822 Colchester Dr Mesquite, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,650	$1.55	8d	1	0.91mi
1021 Irene Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1065	$1,745	$1.64	3d	1	1.18mi
400 Highland Village Dr Unit 212 Mesquite, TX	1.0	1.0	780	$1,380	$1.77	13d	1	1.22mi
400 Highland Village Dr Unit 565 Mesquite, TX	2.0	1.0	953	$1,399	$1.47	44d	1	1.22mi
400 Highland Village Dr Unit 464 Mesquite, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	17d	1	1.22mi
400 Highland Village Dr Unit 649 Mesquite, TX	2.0	1.0	853	$1,425	$1.67	13d	1	1.22mi
400 Highland Village Dr Unit 633 Mesquite, TX	2.0	1.0	853	$1,480	$1.74	44d	1	1.22mi
400 Highland Village Dr Unit 520 Mesquite, TX	2.0	1.0	953	$1,349	$1.42	44d	1	1.22mi
112 Derby Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,650	$1.49	17d	1	1.26mi
902 Lindo Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	982	$1,695	$1.73	8d	1	1.34mi
2005 Mount Pleasant Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	939	$1,545	$1.65	8d	1	1.41mi
2045 Avis Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$1,600	$1.75	24d	1	1.41mi
1218 Gate Lane Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	950	$1,495	$1.57	17d	1	1.42mi
1218 Gate Lane Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	950	$1,495	$1.57	24d	1	1.42mi
1528 Longview St Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	989	$1,790	$1.81	17d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $135,000 Pending 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-04-01
    listed $150,000 Active 32-char remark

    Show marketing remark (32 chars)

    Great Opportunity! Come and See!

11. 2003-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,276 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,276 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$4,276
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,393
• − Management: −$1,393
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$435
• After-tax cash flow: $745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,262
• Household income: $70,774
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2266.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 25% Two or more races 21% Black 20% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 345.6606
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2003-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,276 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.