1291 Grapevine Rd · Highland Springs, VA 23150

$230,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1984 1.03 ac lot $177/sqft · 23% below area Est $300k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This fixer upper is affordably priced as an AS IS property that's oozing with potential for cozy cottage charm . Priced well under 2026 Henrico County assessment! Needs repairs to electrical, plumbing and septic. After your repairs, you could put your own personal stamp on it with new paint and carpet etc, and have it just the way you like. This two level house has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Downstairs you walk into an inviting living room with LVP flooring and a fireplace. The kitchen has solid wood cabinets and lovely granite counters but needs appliances and fixtures. The bathrooms have ceramic tile flooring and tile in the tub/shower combos. Flexible layout includes 2 bonus rooms to use as office /playroom /formal dining room or a first floor primary bedroom and one upstairs instead of both bedrooms upstairs. Situated on a generous 1 acre property where you have plenty of parking and space to enjoy outdoor living on the patio or porch or in the huge private backyard with mature hardwood trees. Enjoy the suburban-rural feel and of this secluded neighborhood near the Chickahominy River Bridge with public access for canoeing, kayak launching or fishing. The property benefits from having no HOA while still being close to I 295 and minutes from shopping, schools and restaurants in Richmond.

Key facts

• Solid wood cabinets
• Private backyard
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• SOLID WOOD CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• MATURE HARDWOOD TREES
• SECLUDED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $227k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.9% in Highland Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,550 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.16%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,096
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -23.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2355 Old Hanover Rd	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,314 (+1%)	20mo	$315,000	$240	63
1816 Evanrude Pl	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-7%)	9mo	$310,000	$258	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-12,816
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $20,228
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23150

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,351 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,053/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,865

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $515	-5% $450	+0% $385	+5% $319	+10% $254
Rent	-10% $199	-5% $292	+0% $385	+5% $477	+10% $570
Rate	-1.0pp $500	-0.5pp $443	base $385	+0.5pp $325	+1.0pp $264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $230,000 Pending 24 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1314 chars)

   This fixer upper is affordably priced as an AS IS property that's oozing with potential for cozy cottage charm . Priced well under 2026 Henrico County assessment! Needs repairs to electrical, plumbing and septic. After your repairs, you could put your own personal stamp on it with new paint and carpet etc, and have it just the way you like. This two level house has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Downstairs you walk into an inviting living room with LVP flooring and a fireplace. The kitchen has solid wood cabinets and lovely granite counters but needs appliances and fixtures. The bathrooms have ceramic tile flooring and tile in the tub/shower combos. Flexible layout includes 2 bonus rooms to use as office /playroom /formal dining room or a first floor primary bedroom and one upstairs instead of both bedrooms upstairs. Situated on a generous 1 acre property where you have plenty of parking and space to enjoy outdoor living on the patio or porch or in the huge private backyard with mature hardwood trees. Enjoy the suburban-rural feel and of this secluded neighborhood near the Chickahominy River Bridge with public access for canoeing, kayak launching or fishing. The property benefits from having no HOA while still being close to I 295 and minutes from shopping, schools and restaurants in Richmond.

2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $230,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1098-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1314 chars)

   This fixer upper is affordably priced as an AS IS property that's oozing with potential for cozy cottage charm . Priced well under 2026 Henrico County assessment! Needs repairs to electrical, plumbing and septic. After your repairs, you could put your own personal stamp on it with new paint and carpet etc, and have it just the way you like. This two level house has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Downstairs you walk into an inviting living room with LVP flooring and a fireplace. The kitchen has solid wood cabinets and lovely granite counters but needs appliances and fixtures. The bathrooms have ceramic tile flooring and tile in the tub/shower combos. Flexible layout includes 2 bonus rooms to use as office /playroom /formal dining room or a first floor primary bedroom and one upstairs instead of both bedrooms upstairs. Situated on a generous 1 acre property where you have plenty of parking and space to enjoy outdoor living on the patio or porch or in the huge private backyard with mature hardwood trees. Enjoy the suburban-rural feel and of this secluded neighborhood near the Chickahominy River Bridge with public access for canoeing, kayak launching or fishing. The property benefits from having no HOA while still being close to I 295 and minutes from shopping, schools and restaurants in Richmond.

4. 2026-04-23
   listed $230,000 Active 1098-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1314 chars)

   This fixer upper is affordably priced as an AS IS property that's oozing with potential for cozy cottage charm . Priced well under 2026 Henrico County assessment! Needs repairs to electrical, plumbing and septic. After your repairs, you could put your own personal stamp on it with new paint and carpet etc, and have it just the way you like. This two level house has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Downstairs you walk into an inviting living room with LVP flooring and a fireplace. The kitchen has solid wood cabinets and lovely granite counters but needs appliances and fixtures. The bathrooms have ceramic tile flooring and tile in the tub/shower combos. Flexible layout includes 2 bonus rooms to use as office /playroom /formal dining room or a first floor primary bedroom and one upstairs instead of both bedrooms upstairs. Situated on a generous 1 acre property where you have plenty of parking and space to enjoy outdoor living on the patio or porch or in the huge private backyard with mature hardwood trees. Enjoy the suburban-rural feel and of this secluded neighborhood near the Chickahominy River Bridge with public access for canoeing, kayak launching or fishing. The property benefits from having no HOA while still being close to I 295 and minutes from shopping, schools and restaurants in Richmond.

5. 2006-07-27
   soldstatus $165,900 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   Beautiful Cedar Cape on 1+wooded ac. with a Full Country Porch, Great back yard with 3 sides enclosed with privacey fence, also 2 bldgs with current -8 by12 and 10 by 14 W/ 21 ft. chest freezer that conveys, 4 nice size bedrooms, living room w/ fireplace, eat-in kitchen w/ stove, dishwasher, and side by side ref/freezer which convey, the computer center in one of the bedrooms also concey. This home has been well kept and it shows. (very neat and clean ) Two wells on property-Artesian in front and regular in rear. To be sold AS IS. This is a great value for the area. Do not wait on this one.

6. 2006-07-27
   soldstatus $165,900

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   Beautiful Cedar Cape on 1+wooded ac. with a Full Country Porch, Great back yard with 3 sides enclosed with privacey fence, also 2 bldgs with current -8 by12 and 10 by 14 W/ 21 ft. chest freezer that conveys, 4 nice size bedrooms, living room w/ fireplace, eat-in kitchen w/ stove, dishwasher, and side by side ref/freezer which convey, the computer center in one of the bedrooms also concey. This home has been well kept and it shows. (very neat and clean ) Two wells on property-Artesian in front and regular in rear. To be sold AS IS. This is a great value for the area. Do not wait on this one.

7. 2006-05-17
   listed $169,000 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   Beautiful Cedar Cape on 1+wooded ac. with a Full Country Porch, Great back yard with 3 sides enclosed with privacey fence, also 2 bldgs with current -8 by12 and 10 by 14 W/ 21 ft. chest freezer that conveys, 4 nice size bedrooms, living room w/ fireplace, eat-in kitchen w/ stove, dishwasher, and side by side ref/freezer which convey, the computer center in one of the bedrooms also concey. This home has been well kept and it shows. (very neat and clean ) Two wells on property-Artesian in front and regular in rear. To be sold AS IS. This is a great value for the area. Do not wait on this one.

8. 2006-05-17
   listed $169,000

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   Beautiful Cedar Cape on 1+wooded ac. with a Full Country Porch, Great back yard with 3 sides enclosed with privacey fence, also 2 bldgs with current -8 by12 and 10 by 14 W/ 21 ft. chest freezer that conveys, 4 nice size bedrooms, living room w/ fireplace, eat-in kitchen w/ stove, dishwasher, and side by side ref/freezer which convey, the computer center in one of the bedrooms also concey. This home has been well kept and it shows. (very neat and clean ) Two wells on property-Artesian in front and regular in rear. To be sold AS IS. This is a great value for the area. Do not wait on this one.

9. 1988-02-01
   soldstatus $78,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,053 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,053 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,053
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,257
• − Management: −$2,257
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $924
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$222
• After-tax cash flow: $4,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Highland Springs

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #6085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 8,347
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 12,544
• Household income: $79,050
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 311.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.68%
• Current HPI: 296.353
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+193.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-19 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $230,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-07-27 Sold (MLS) $165,900 CVRMLS
• 2006-07-27 Sold (MLS) $165,900 CVRMLS
• 2006-05-17 Listed $169,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-05-17 Listed $169,000 CVRMLS
• 1988-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,053 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.