233 Westbrook Dr · Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ 08757

$239,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,121 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1981 5,662 sqft lot Est $315k · 24% under $24/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this affordable blank canvas with a great floor plan and stunning backyard views of an open preserve. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers over 1,100 sq ft, featuring a living room, kitchen, family/dining room combo, and a spacious sunroom. Includes laundry area, central air, and a one-car garage. Located in a desirable 55+ community with a clubhouse, plus low taxes and HOA fees. Close to beaches, golf, shopping, medical facilities, the GSP, NYC, Philly, Atlantic City, and the Jersey Shore. Renovate to your taste--an excellent opportunity, priced to sell!

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Quarterly association fee for common area; Community amenities include clubhouse, community room, bocce, common access; no pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Located in the Silveridge Pk W subdivision (Holiday City / Berkeley area)

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher and stove
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Dishwasher, Stove, Window treatments; Crawl space basement; Living room, Family room, Sunroom, Laundry room, Garage (all on first floor)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $233k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.2% in Holiday City-Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,510/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $240k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $315,001
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
89 Carlisle Rd	0.20mi	2/1.5	1,121 (0%)	3mo	$350,000	$312	86
1 Hampshire Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,121 (0%)	1mo	$315,000	$281	82
135 Northumberland Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,139 (+2%)	2mo	$335,000	$294	80
1 Miles Pond Rd	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,105 (-1%)	2mo	$164,000	$148	79
12 Norfolk Dr	0.30mi	2/1.5	1,157 (+3%)	2mo	$335,000	$290	77
37 Carlisle Rd	0.49mi	2/1.5	1,121 (0%)	0mo	$310,000	$277	75
27 Whitaker Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,153 (+3%)	1mo	$390,000	$338	74
62 Scarborough Pl	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,124 (+0%)	2mo	$265,000	$236	69
112 Northumberland Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,121 (0%)	3mo	$365,000	$326	64
331 Saint Thomas Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,124 (+0%)	3mo	$215,118	$191	64
37 Zeeland Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,153 (+3%)	1mo	$292,000	$253	61
9 Carlisle Rd	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,059 (-6%)	1mo	$220,000	$208	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-15,562
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $16,502
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,510 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,818/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$24
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,047

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	1d	1	0.90mi
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	6d	1	1.10mi
59 Guadeloupe Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1126	$2,300	$2.04	1d	1	1.10mi
10 Purnell St Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	1d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $24 · $288/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    status Active
16. 2026-05-07
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $249,900 Active
18. 2026-04-20
    historical $249,900
19. 1997-08-04
    soldstatus $78,000
20. 1981-08-01
    soldstatus $45,052

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,818 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,396 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,578/yr (+$131/mo · 56.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,818
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,409
• − Management: −$2,409
• − HOA: −$288
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable income: $575
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$138
• After-tax cash flow: $4,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City-Berkeley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 35,652
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+454.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $249,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-20 Coming Soon $249,900 MOMLS
• 1997-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1981-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,052 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,818 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.