3703 Mount Tabor Rd · Kathleen, FL 33810

$149,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1949 0.96 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Amazing opportunity under market value on just under 1 acre. This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home will need remodeling. Once completed this will make a great home or a great investment property. The bonus room is air conditioned and can easily be converted into a proper third bedroom. The expansive back yard has a ton of potential and with the proper care it can be amazing.

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Expansive back yard
• 0.96 acre lot

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• EXPANSIVE BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,475 (1.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.02%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,040
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $10,737
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $844/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,164

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3276 Mount Tabor Rd Lot 28 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,295	$1.45	3d	1	0.49mi
3276 Mount Tabor Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	896	$1,195	$1.33	3d	1	0.49mi
5138 Rollinglen Loop W Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,400	$1.52	3d	1	0.70mi
5442 Lewellyn Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	14d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-11-01
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-29
   status Active
3. 2025-10-29
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-28
   status Active
5. 2025-08-29
   status Pending
6. 2025-08-25
   status Active
7. 2025-08-18
   status Pending
8. 2025-08-18
   status Active
9. 2025-08-14
   status Pending
10. 2025-08-05
    status Active
11. 2025-08-05
    price $149,999
12. 2025-07-30
    status Pending
13. 2025-07-22
    listed $164,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $844 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$401/yr (+$33/mo · 47.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$844
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$121
• After-tax cash flow: $2,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kathleen

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #16450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 52,734
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $149,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Listed $164,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+43.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $844 · +30.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.