Tourmaline Plan · Parrish, FL 34219

$459,950

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,679 sqft · SingleFamily · 224 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The two-story Tourmaline plan greets guests with an inviting covered entry and continues to impress with a main-floor bedroom and bathroom, a generous great room, a thoughtfully designed kitchen with a center island, a roomy nook and a serene covered patio. On the second floor, you'll find three bedrooms-including a beautiful primary suite boasting an immense walk-in closet and a private bath with double sinks. A laundry, a loft and a shared bath round out this level.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 224 days

🏗️ New construction. The $459,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $681,780.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $460k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $411k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $360k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $360k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 4.7% in Parrish — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2985 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $359,878 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.75%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $681,780
• List price: $459,950
• Delta: -32.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15458 Mulholland Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,709 (+1%)	3mo	$640,000	$236	81
15425 Mulholland Rd	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,565 (-4%)	8mo	$845,000	$329	73
15451 27th Ct E	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,628 (-2%)	5mo	$734,500	$279	69
3310 Twin Rivers Trl	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,700 (+1%)	0mo	$650,000	$241	68
14911 18th Run E	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,692 (+0%)	2mo	$580,000	$215	63
2926 156th Ter E	0.61mi	3/3.0	2,773 (+4%)	4mo	$855,000	$308	60
16214 Mulholland Rd	0.68mi	3/3.0	2,540 (-5%)	3mo	$690,000	$272	55
2116 151st Ter E	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,282 (-15%)	1mo	$635,000	$278	55
14325 17th Ct E	0.61mi	3/3.0	2,395 (-11%)	0mo	$420,000	$175	52
14285 17th Ct E	0.63mi	3/3.0	2,395 (-11%)	2mo	$507,000	$212	49
15017 15th St E	0.73mi	3/3.0	2,832 (+6%)	7mo	$864,000	$305	49
15519 29th St E	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,979 (+11%)	7mo	$785,000	$264	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-239,981
• Equity at exit: $101,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -89.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.11×
• Total profit: $-402,756
• Equity at exit: $58,948

Cash invested: $190,898 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.4 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $525,000 ($215/sqft)
• Median days on market: 184 d
• This list price: 34% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2985
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,575
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$852 /mo · $10,227/yr
• Insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$756
• Net cashflow: $-1,869

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,964

Max offer price $411,392

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,397	-5% $-1,633	+0% $-1,869	+5% $-2,104	+10% $-2,340
Rent	-10% $-2,153	-5% $-2,011	+0% $-1,869	+5% $-1,726	+10% $-1,584
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,525	-0.5pp $-1,695	base $-1,869	+0.5pp $-2,045	+1.0pp $-2,225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $170,445
• Closing costs: $20,453
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16465 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2045	$2,400	$1.17	9d	1	1.10mi
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	119d	1	1.11mi
16540 Cheyanne Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1977	$2,505	$1.27	9d	1	1.32mi
1043 145th Street Cir NE Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2600	$6,500	$2.50	9d	1	1.34mi
16005 42nd Gln E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	3157	$4,000	$1.27	87d	1	1.39mi
13744 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2274	$2,850	$1.25	81d	1	1.41mi
13927 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2552	$3,350	$1.31	7d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $489,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planAddress: Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan model: TourmalineLiving area approximately 2,679

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $459,950 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $459,950 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $459,950 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $459,950 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $459,950 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $459,950 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $459,950 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $459,950 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $459,950 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $459,950 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $459,950 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $459,950 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $459,950 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $459,950 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $459,950 Active 202 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $459,950 Active 201 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $459,950 Active 200 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $459,950 Active 199 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $459,950 Active 198 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $459,950 Active 197 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $459,950 Active 196 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $459,950 Active 195 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $459,950 Active 194 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $459,950 Active 193 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $459,950 Active 192 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $459,950 Active 191 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $459,950 Active 190 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $459,950 Active 189 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $459,950 Active 188 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $459,950 Active 187 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $459,950 Active 186 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $459,950 Active 185 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $459,950 Active 184 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $459,950 Active 183 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $459,950 Active 182 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $459,950 Active 181 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    pricedays on market $459,950 Active 180 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $469,950 Active 179 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $469,950 Active 178 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $469,950 Active 177 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $469,950 Active 176 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $469,950 Active 175 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $469,950 Active 171 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $469,950 Active 169 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $469,950 Active 168 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $469,950 Active 164 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $469,950 Active 163 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $469,950 Active 162 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $469,950 Active 161 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $469,950 Active 158 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,190
• − Property taxes: −$10,227
• − Insurance: −$3,409
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,455
• − Management: −$3,455
• − Depreciation: −$19,834
• Taxable loss: −$35,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,492
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,395–$40,185 screening

This two-story Tourmaline plan is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and making interior touch-ups would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School A FL #185/2,144 Nat'l #1,912/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $489,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planAddress: Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan model: TourmalineLiving area approximately 2,679