106 E Williams Dr · Burkburnett, TX 76354

$139,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,525 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1940 $92/sqft · 36% below area Est $217k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* AI Staged * Charming and beautifully updated 3 bed, 2 bath home offering 1,525 sq ft of inviting living space. Enjoy major upgrades including electrical, plumbing, and HVAC throughout, along with recessed lighting and primary bath fixtures. Spacious layout features large walk-in closets and comfortable flow for everyday living. Expansive backyard offers room for entertaining and extra parking. Prime location across from Burk Royal Park with front-row views of local events and close to all the local schools!

Key facts

• New ceiling fans
• Recessed lighting
• Updated living space

Tags

• UPDATED LIVING SPACE
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• NEW CEILING FANS
• UPDATED PRIMARY BATH FIXTURES
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSETS
• ACROSS FROM BURK ROYALTY PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#345 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
• Burkburnett ISD (town): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #529 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,354 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.07%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,154
• List price: $139,950
• Delta: -35.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,398
• Equity at exit: $20,867

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $34,323
• Equity at exit: $12,100

Cash invested: $39,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76354

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,246/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,134

Max offer price $139,950

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,988
• Closing costs: $4,198
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 Aztec Dr Burkburnett, TX	3.0	2.0	2178	$2,500	$1.15	43d	1	0.61mi
709 E 1st St Burkburnett, TX	3.0	1.0	1162	$1,095	$0.94	43d	1	0.75mi
908 Sycamore Dr Burkburnett, TX	2.0	2.0	1194	$1,100	$0.92	43d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,950 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,950 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,950 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,950 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,950 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,950 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,950 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,950 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,950 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,950 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,950 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,950 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,950 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,950 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,950 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,950 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,950 Active 99 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    price $139,950 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    * AI Staged * Charming and beautifully updated 3 bed, 2 bath home offering 1,525 sq ft of inviting living space. Enjoy major upgrades including electrical, plumbing, and HVAC throughout, along with recessed lighting and primary bath fixtures. Spacious layout features large walk-in closets and comfortable flow for everyday living. Expansive backyard offers room for entertaining and extra parking. Prime location across from Burk Royal Park with front-row views of local events and close to all the local schools!

19. 2026-04-13
    price $144,950 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    * AI Staged * Charming and beautifully updated 3 bed, 2 bath home offering 1,525 sq ft of inviting living space. Enjoy major upgrades including electrical, plumbing, and HVAC throughout, along with recessed lighting and primary bath fixtures. Spacious layout features large walk-in closets and comfortable flow for everyday living. Expansive backyard offers room for entertaining and extra parking. Prime location across from Burk Royal Park with front-row views of local events and close to all the local schools!

20. 2026-02-20
    listed $149,950 Active 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    * AI Staged * Charming and beautifully updated 3 bed, 2 bath home offering 1,525 sq ft of inviting living space. Enjoy major upgrades including electrical, plumbing, and HVAC throughout, along with recessed lighting and primary bath fixtures. Spacious layout features large walk-in closets and comfortable flow for everyday living. Expansive backyard offers room for entertaining and extra parking. Prime location across from Burk Royal Park with front-row views of local events and close to all the local schools!

21. 2025-10-14
    price $165,000
22. 2023-01-14
    soldstatus
23. 2023-01-10
    soldstatus
24. 2022-12-12
    listed $49,750
25. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus
26. 2022-02-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,246 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,561 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,315/yr (+$110/mo · 105.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,839
• − Property taxes: −$1,246
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,568
• − Management: −$1,568
• − Depreciation: −$4,071
• Taxable income: $2,604
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$625
• After-tax cash flow: $4,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burkburnett ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812120
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,346
• Composite: 29.44/100
• National rank: #6519
• State rank: #529 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burkburnett

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #7548

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burkburnett, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,822

Population outlook (Wichita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,638 people
• By 2030: 128,366 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 124,466 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 120,499 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 113,884 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 101,818 · -21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Iranian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wichita

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.5% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.1 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+47.1 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.48%
• Current HPI: 166.3827
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+181.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $139,950 WFAOR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $144,950 WFAOR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $149,950 WFAOR
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $165,000 WFAOR
• 2023-01-14 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2023-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-12 Listed $49,750 WFAOR
• 2022-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,246 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.