521 Graham Dr · Graham, NC 27253

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1955 0.32 ac lot Est $186k · 19% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER Opportunity in convenient Graham location! One level home with 3 bedrooms, 1 bath. Living Room. Eat in Kitchen with Fridge/Stove/Washer/Dryer convey. Side deck. Metal carport. Multiple outbuildings/storage options. Paved driveway. Property will be sold AS IS. School zone: Newlin Elem, Graham Middle & Graham High. **Den & Family Room offer 350+ sq ft; Den has low ceiling (6'2) and Bonus Room is not heated/cooled. These spaces are not included in finished sq ftg**

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• Side deck
• Paved driveway

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SIDE DECK
• METAL CARPORT
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• SCHOOL ZONE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as fixer; Lot approximately 0.32 acre; City street with public maintenance and asphalt surface
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-space carport; Driveway (paved)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Site-built single-story home; One level
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built as site-built
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Outbuilding; Storage (exterior)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric oven; Kitchen laundry area
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; Central air conditioning (electric); Gas pack cooling
• Interior features: Free-standing electric oven; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.3% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#144 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 395 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,187 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.46%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,068
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 W Gilbreath St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,030 (+0%)	4mo	$205,000	$199	69
2123 Wiggins St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,035 (+1%)	2mo	$127,000	$123	65
803 Buckner St	0.44mi	3/1.5	966 (-6%)	7mo	$178,000	$184	61
302 Bradley St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+7%)	9mo	$245,000	$223	60
206 Border St	0.31mi	3/1.0	882 (-14%)	7mo	$137,000	$155	56
1215 Cleveland Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,090 (+6%)	3mo	$195,000	$179	55
728 Ben Ct	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+9%)	1mo	$220,000	$196	53
369 Albany St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,049 (+2%)	13mo	$175,000	$167	52
721 Banks St	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,083 (+5%)	8mo	$180,000	$166	52
310 Wilson St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	906 (-12%)	8mo	$200,000	$221	48
307 Oneida St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	873 (-15%)	3mo	$140,000	$160	46
310 Meadowbrook Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,163 (+13%)	13mo	$210,000	$181	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,745
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,370
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27253

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 395
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,442 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $345/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,111

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $304	+0% $261	+5% $219	+10% $176
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $204	+0% $261	+5% $318	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $337	-0.5pp $299	base $261	+0.5pp $222	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
511 Poplar St Unit C Graham, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	22d	1	0.22mi
318 Wilson St Graham, NC	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,795	$1.40	14d	1	0.48mi
317a Atwood Dr Burlington, NC	2.0	1.5	980	$1,282	$1.31	22d	8	0.52mi
212 College St Apt G Graham, NC	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,125	$1.07	22d	1	0.53mi
632 New St Graham, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	22d	1	0.69mi
433 Holt Ave Graham, NC	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,727	$1.43	14d	1	0.70mi
317 E Gilbreath St Unit 319 Graham, NC	2.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	22d	1	1.05mi
1352 Snow Ct Burlington, NC	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,625	$1.30	14d	1	1.24mi
130 W Crescent Square Dr Graham, NC	2.0	2.0	1159	$1,364	$1.18	22d	6	1.27mi
709 Maryland Ave Burlington, NC	2.0	1.0	786	$1,225	$1.56	22d	1	1.33mi
219 Moyer Dr Graham, NC	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,825	$1.22	14d	1	1.38mi
100 Ivey Rd Unit 104 Graham, NC	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,195	$1.09	22d	1	1.49mi
721 E Morehead St Burlington, NC	4.0	2.0	1470	$1,550	$1.05	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $150,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   remarks 543-char remark
5. 2026-06-05
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $345 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$885/yr (+$74/mo · 256.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$345
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,384
• − Management: −$1,384
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $673
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$162
• After-tax cash flow: $2,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Graham

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #8181

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graham, NC
• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• City population: 33,114
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 33,114
• Household income: $62,774
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 879.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 16% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.91%
• Current HPI: 200.155
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $150,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $150,000 TMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $345 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.