7710 47th St NW · Lake Goodwin, WA 98271

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 355 Days on market

Built 1940 0.26 ac lot $31/sqft · 70% below area Est $69k · 28% under ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rustic studio cabin on low/ no bank Puget Sound waterfront. Boating (possible moorage), fishing, crabbing await. Enjoy marine life and soaring eagles from you private residence. Open living area with 1/2 bath. Kitchen has microwave and mini-fridge. Crows nest space above for arts, reading or sunsets. Off street parking. Follow path to the right. Fryberg leased land. New 25+25 yr lease $22139.84/yr Adjusted every 5 years. No county taxes. $500/year Tulalip tax. Patience please. Cash only. POF w/ offer No lenders available. Water and electric turned off. Estate sale. Selling as is. Interested parties must be accompanied by a Licensed Broker. Do not enter blue structure. Neighbor owns tram all

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 354 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 44.5% vs local median 2.0% in Lake Goodwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#330 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Marysville School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #177 of 291 in WA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 355 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 355 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 136.29%
• DSCR: 7.06
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,068
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -27.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $91,489
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.52×
• Total profit: $203,280
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98271

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $779/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $1,590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $440

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4126 Mission Beach Rd Tulalip, WA	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,395	$1.82	20d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-13
   price $50,000
2. 2025-07-17
   status Active
3. 2025-07-17
   price $70,000
4. 2023-09-14
   status Pending
5. 2023-08-04
   listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$779
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $19,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,666
• After-tax cash flow: $14,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville School District
• NCES district ID: 5304860
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,461
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #7367
• State rank: #177 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Goodwin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #12350

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 30,838
• Household income: $95,654
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 929.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -666.16%
• Current HPI: 305.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-44.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $50,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $70,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-04 Listed $90,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2014): $779 · -86.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.