37342 Aspen Ct · Crosslake, MN 56442

$134,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1999 0.25 ac lot $105/sqft · 82% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy lake living in desirable Chatham Park in Cross Lake! This well maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bath home sits on a spacious corner leased lot and offers the perfect opportunity to enjoy the Whitefish Chain, Crow Wing State Forest, and all the recreation the Brainerd Lakes Area has to offer. You will be right in the heart of boating, fishing, trails and year round outdoor fun. Inside you will find a large kitchen with abundant cabinet space, plenty of storage throughout, and a comfortable Minnesota Room addition that provides extra living space perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Step outside to enjoy the deck, ideal for summer evenings, morning coffee and to watch the wildlife. T

Key facts

• Whitefish chain
• Corner leased lot
• Deck

Tags

• CORNER LEASED LOT
• WHITEFISH CHAIN
• CROW WING STATE FOREST
• BOATING FISHING TRAILS
• MINNESOTA ROOM ADDITION
• DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.25 acres
• Financial info: Land is leased; land lease $495/month

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached 1.5-car garage
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; Single story; Entry level on main floor; 28x40 foundation dimensions
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No basement; One-level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 1.4% in Crosslake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#628 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pequot Lakes Public Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #137 of 301 in MN (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 420 units permitted in Crow Wing County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crow Wing County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $130,853 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.67%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $745,121
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -81.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $45,579
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $126,376
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56442

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $274/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $1,060

Break-even live

Break-even rent $996

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $134,900 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Contingent - Inspection 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,900 Contingent - Inspection 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Contingent - Inspection 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Contingent - Inspection 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,900 Contingent - Inspection 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,900 Contingent - Inspection 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $134,900 Contingent - Inspection 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   status $134,900 Contingent - Inspection 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    listed $149,900 Active 1149-char remark
15. 2007-11-02
    historical
16. 2007-06-25
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $274 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $892 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$618/yr (+$52/mo · 225.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$274
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,243
• − Management: −$2,243
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $11,127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,670
• After-tax cash flow: $10,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pequot Lakes Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2728200
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,513
• Composite: 41.62/100
• National rank: #3430
• State rank: #137 of 301 in MN

Livability — Crosslake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #15018

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crosslake, MN
• City population: 2,895
• Population (ZIP): 2,895

Population outlook (Crow Wing County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,187 people
• By 2030: 64,057 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 62,470 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 59,064 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 48,738 · -24.1%
• By 2100: 36,112 · -43.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crow Wing

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.7 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.60%
• Current HPI: 218.1511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+68.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-03 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $134,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Listed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-25 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $274 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.