168 Vz County Road 1830 · Grand Saline, TX 75140

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1984 0.41 ac lot $144/sqft · at area comps Est $205k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home on a great street in Grand Saline, now brightened up with a fresh, updated look! This refreshed property features new appliances, new windows, and thoughtful updates throughout, creating a light and inviting feel while still keeping its original character. With a comfortable layout and move-in ready condition, this home is perfect for anyone looking for a blend of charm and modern touches in a convenient location.

Key facts

• Thoughtful updates
• New appliances
• Convenient location

Tags

• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW WINDOWS
• THOUGHTFUL UPDATES
• MOVE-IN READY CONDITION
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.0% in Grand Saline — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#800 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Grand Saline ISD (town): math 38% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #520 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,247 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,950
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -2.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
150 Vz County Road 1830	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+9%)	3mo	$210,000	$140	77
1209 Lakeside Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-8%)	2mo	$199,900	$158	58
208 De Gail St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-4%)	11mo	$199,000	$150	56
215 N Oaks Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-8%)	1mo	$168,000	$132	52
105 E Cate St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+15%)	2mo	$189,999	$120	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $11,845
• Equity at exit: $86,045

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $58,643
• Equity at exit: $129,995

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75140

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,922/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,629

Max offer price $174,406

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1024 N Spring St Grand Saline, TX	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,500	$1.03	43d	1	0.61mi
543 Bradburn Rd Unit 101 Grand Saline, TX	2.0	1.0	1169	$1,500	$1.28	13d	1	1.02mi
605 W Hill St Grand Saline, TX	3.0	1.5	1032	$1,275	$1.24	13d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $199,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-05-18
   price $199,000 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Charming home on a great street in Grand Saline, now brightened up with a fresh, updated look! This refreshed property features new appliances, new windows, and thoughtful updates throughout, creating a light and inviting feel while still keeping its original character. With a comfortable layout and move-in ready condition, this home is perfect for anyone looking for a blend of charm and modern touches in a convenient location.

5. 2026-03-31
   listed $220,000 Active 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Charming home on a great street in Grand Saline, now brightened up with a fresh, updated look! This refreshed property features new appliances, new windows, and thoughtful updates throughout, creating a light and inviting feel while still keeping its original character. With a comfortable layout and move-in ready condition, this home is perfect for anyone looking for a blend of charm and modern touches in a convenient location.

6. 2026-03-06
   historical
7. 2025-07-21
   listed $175,000 Active
8. 2005-06-08
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,720/yr (+$143/mo · 89.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,922
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,394
• − Management: −$1,394
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$5,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,251
• After-tax cash flow: $-420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grand Saline ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821450
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,621
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6365
• State rank: #520 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grand Saline

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #800
• US rank: #14580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,596

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Current HPI: 215.5979
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-21 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2005-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,922 · +40.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.