3012 Walnut Springs Dr · Houston, TX 77449

$234,899

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,542 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1984 5,401 sqft lot Est $254k · 8% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming little one story property zoned to highly rated Katy schools. Open floor plan with high ceilings. Tile floors throughout. 2 patio areas outside. Easy access to I-10 and all the amenities of the Katy area. This one won't last long!

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morton Ranch J H (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 1,184 students, 75% FRL); Morton Ranch H S (math 31% / reading 55%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 2,718 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 27% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 88% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $235k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,125 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.69%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,430
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3111 Rainpark Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-0%)	1mo	$254,000	$165	82
20111 Sunchase Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-2%)	2mo	$250,000	$165	80
20210 Bronze Bluff Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,506 (-2%)	7mo	$260,000	$173	80
20115 Golden Mesa Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-3%)	2mo	$225,000	$151	77
20606 Red Sun Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+6%)	8mo	$245,000	$150	73
3031 W Cedar Sun Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,598 (+4%)	8mo	$255,680	$160	72
20319 S Sabinal Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+9%)	6mo	$260,000	$155	70
2606 Sunbird Drive Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-1%)	1mo	$235,000	$154	66
2715 Silk Tree Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,644 (+7%)	7mo	$285,000	$173	57
20703 Rainmead Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-7%)	1mo	$280,000	$195	55
2739 Amaranth Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+6%)	8mo	$244,000	$149	53
20426 Pomegranate Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-10%)	6mo	$265,000	$191	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-39,278
• Equity at exit: $53,663

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-57,112
• Equity at exit: $53,801

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,043 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$441 /mo · $5,297/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,299

Max offer price $199,125

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2919 Amber Cliff Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,900	$1.25	43d	1	0.21mi
20102 Twilight Canyon Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1633	$3,395	$2.08	3d	1	0.30mi
3130 Birchleaf Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,840	$1.08	43d	1	0.37mi
2603 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,213	$2.32	2d	39	0.54mi
3427 W Rainmill Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,850	$1.24	24d	1	0.65mi
20000 Saums Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	841	$1,839	$2.19	1d	22	0.72mi
2203 Wheathall Camp Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,745	$1.25	43d	1	0.84mi
21402 Doral Rose Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,950	$1.05	24d	1	0.87mi
2622 Broomsedge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,050	$0.60	5d	1	0.90mi
2503 Silver Trumpet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,791	$1.29	11d	1	0.92mi
19638 Southaven Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,769	$1.05	17d	1	0.99mi
2607 Cypressvine Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	19d	1	1.07mi
21622 Stonecross Terrace Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,050	$1.15	24d	1	1.14mi
2606 Olster Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,571	$1.03	5d	1	1.14mi
2014 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1129	$1,265	$1.12	43d	1	1.15mi
19434 Brook Village Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,950	$1.07	43d	1	1.17mi
20070 N Navaho Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,695	$1.24	22d	1	1.20mi
2000 Westborough Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,857	$1.81	2d	16	1.20mi
3507 Banks Run Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,806	$0.93	5d	1	1.22mi
19407 Dawn Canyon Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,716	$1.09	43d	1	1.23mi
2411 Shady Brook Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$1,916	$1.12	5d	1	1.32mi
20104 Park Row Blvd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,309	$1.06	43d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,899 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,899 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,899 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,899 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $234,899 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,899 Coming Soon 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,899 Coming Soon 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,899 Coming Soon 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $234,899 Coming Soon 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,899 Coming Soon 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,899 Coming Soon 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,899 Coming Soon 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,899 Coming Soon 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    historical $234,899
15. 2015-11-20
    soldstatus
16. 2015-11-02
    historical 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Charming little one story property zoned to highly rated Katy schools. Open floor plan with high ceilings. Tile floors throughout. 2 patio areas outside. Easy access to I-10 and all the amenities of the Katy area. This one won't last long!

17. 2015-10-30
    soldstatus Sold 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Charming little one story property zoned to highly rated Katy schools. Open floor plan with high ceilings. Tile floors throughout. 2 patio areas outside. Easy access to I-10 and all the amenities of the Katy area. This one won't last long!

18. 2015-10-05
    status Pending 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Charming little one story property zoned to highly rated Katy schools. Open floor plan with high ceilings. Tile floors throughout. 2 patio areas outside. Easy access to I-10 and all the amenities of the Katy area. This one won't last long!

19. 2015-09-18
    status Option Pending 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Charming little one story property zoned to highly rated Katy schools. Open floor plan with high ceilings. Tile floors throughout. 2 patio areas outside. Easy access to I-10 and all the amenities of the Katy area. This one won't last long!

20. 2015-09-16
    listed $125,000 Active 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Charming little one story property zoned to highly rated Katy schools. Open floor plan with high ceilings. Tile floors throughout. 2 patio areas outside. Easy access to I-10 and all the amenities of the Katy area. This one won't last long!

21. 2010-05-27
    soldstatus
22. 2010-05-24
    soldstatus 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Forclosure BANK OWNED SOLD AS IS ,New Carpet installed/ New paint(coming)/Power washing, great starter Home, nice subdivision 3/2/2 , Open floor plan, established area, close proximtiy to amenities, tile and high ceilings in Living area.

23. 2010-05-03
    historical 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Forclosure BANK OWNED SOLD AS IS ,New Carpet installed/ New paint(coming)/Power washing, great starter Home, nice subdivision 3/2/2 , Open floor plan, established area, close proximtiy to amenities, tile and high ceilings in Living area.

24. 2010-02-19
    listed $74,900 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Forclosure BANK OWNED SOLD AS IS ,New Carpet installed/ New paint(coming)/Power washing, great starter Home, nice subdivision 3/2/2 , Open floor plan, established area, close proximtiy to amenities, tile and high ceilings in Living area.

25. 2009-09-02
    historical
26. 2009-04-30
    listed $91,000
27. 1997-02-03
    soldstatus $81,994
28. 1997-01-01
    soldstatus $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,297 · $441/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,297 · $441/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$5,297
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,961
• − Management: −$1,961
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$6,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,539
• After-tax cash flow: $-891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+261.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Coming Soon $234,899 HARMLS
• 2015-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-10-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-10-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-09-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-09-16 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2010-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-05-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-05-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-02-19 Listed $74,900 HARMLS
• 2009-09-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-04-30 Listed $91,000 HARMLS
• 1997-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $81,994 Public Records
• 1997-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,297 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.