13432 Balderdash Ct · Cresson, TX 76035

$229,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,203 sqft · Land · 170 Days on market

Built 2024 6,534 sqft lot $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21095505 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Harrison Plan from our Liberty Series offers a perfect blend of comfort, practicality, and exceptional value. This 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 2,203 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll pass the versatile flex room before reaching the staircase to the upper level, a convenient closet, and a half bathroom. The heart of the home is the open kitchen and living area, complete with a central island, a dining area, and a spacious family room — perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Upstairs, the private primary suite awaits, featuring an en s

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.4% in Cresson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#843 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D, schools F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $71k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.40%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-936
• Equity at exit: $46,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $41,569
• Equity at exit: $40,739

Cash invested: $64,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76035

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,381 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $688/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $229,990

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,498
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13404 Balderdash Ct Cresson, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	2025	$2,532	$1.25	1d	1	0.09mi
13404 Gitty Up Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,150	$1.30	1d	1	0.21mi
13557 Gunsmoke Ln Cresson, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,000	$1.12	1d	1	0.34mi
13545 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,490	$1.36	1d	1	0.40mi
13553 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1644	$2,641	$1.61	1d	90	0.42mi
13557 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,325	$1.40	24d	1	0.43mi
13589 Gunsmoke Ln Cresson, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,350	$1.42	1d	1	0.43mi
13565 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,250	$1.45	24d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   status Active
3. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-25
   price $229,990
5. 2026-03-11
   price $234,990
6. 2026-03-06
   price $249,990
7. 2026-03-04
   price $264,990
8. 2026-02-27
   price $259,990
9. 2026-02-06
   price $264,990
10. 2026-01-26
    price $269,990
11. 2026-01-15
    price $275,990
12. 2026-01-05
    price $279,990
13. 2025-12-23
    price $282,990
14. 2025-12-17
    price $284,990
15. 2025-12-09
    price $285,986
16. 2025-12-09
    price $289,486
17. 2025-11-25
    price $294,486
18. 2025-11-10
    price $295,987
19. 2025-11-03
    price $293,487
20. 2025-10-25
    price $297,488
21. 2025-10-24
    listed $300,989 Active
22. 2025-09-25
    historical
23. 2025-09-17
    price $312,494
24. 2025-09-07
    price $312,996
25. 2025-09-04
    price $312,997
26. 2025-08-21
    price $302,990
27. 2025-07-16
    price $314,990
28. 2025-07-14
    listed $304,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $688 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,521/yr (+$293/mo · 512.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,883
• − Property taxes: −$688
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,286
• − Management: −$2,286
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $1,091
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$262
• After-tax cash flow: $4,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cresson

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #15205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,247

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 12% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Current HPI: 187.0174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.6% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $229,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $234,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $249,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $264,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $259,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $264,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $269,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $275,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $279,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $282,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $284,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $285,986 NTREIS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $289,486 NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $294,486 NTREIS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $295,987 NTREIS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $293,487 NTREIS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $297,488 NTREIS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $300,989 NTREIS
• 2025-09-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $312,494 NTREIS
• 2025-09-07 Price Changed $312,996 NTREIS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $312,997 NTREIS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $302,990 NTREIS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $314,990 NTREIS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $304,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+29.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $688 · +67.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.