17146 E Meadow Ln · Spring Valley, AZ 86333

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 1970 8,432 sqft lot Est $213k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to get out of the big city on the weekends or full time living. Unaffixed Mobile Home/additions with some fix up - fenced yard in desirable location of Spring Valley. Priced for quick sale.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Desirable location
• 8,432 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Non-assumable financing
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Utilities: Septic tank; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housing; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof; Building area source: owner
• Exterior features: Chain-link fence; Shed(s); Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front; County-maintained road; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating: see remarks; Cooling: see remarks
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($972/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#117 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $125k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.40%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,000
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17124 E Fairway Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+3%)	10mo	$248,000	$240	71
17071 E Bob White Rd	0.19mi	2/2.0	924 (-8%)	6mo	$110,000	$119	69
17069 E Fairway Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	900 (-10%)	10mo	$126,000	$140	64
13555 S Spring Ln	0.29mi	2/2.0	939 (-6%)	19mo	$230,000	$245	56
13815 S Burton Rd	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,149 (+15%)	15mo	$245,000	$213	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $73,523
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $213,032
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $124	+0% $81	+5% $38	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $12	+0% $81	+5% $150	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $113	base $81	+0.5pp $49	+1.0pp $16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    remarks 207-char remark
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$5,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$182
• After-tax cash flow: $1,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Spring Valley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #15515

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Valley, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $125,000 ARMLS
• 1998-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1994-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1992-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $190 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.