212 Cypress Dr · Ocean Gate, NJ 08721

$880,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1985 4,791 sqft lot Est $603k · 46% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This structurally sound custom home sits on a deep water lagoon located in the Glen Cove section & was built by the owner with love and grit and offers a sturdy roof, strong framing and a solid foundation built on reinforced pilings over and above with what was required. Sprinkler System & heat in the garage. Weil McClain Heating System w/ maintenance plan through NJR, home has been extra insulated, it has a recirculating hot water system, 4' high, easy access crawl space, dry & vented and offers additional storage. 4 BRs, 3 baths, new floor in living room, new insulated garage door, pull down attic w/ storage. 2 Sheds, double wide concrete driveway, 60' dock, w/ upper de

Key facts

• Deep water lagoon
• Strong framing
• Solid foundation

Tags

• DEEP WATER LAGOON
• STURDY ROOF
• STRONG FRAMING
• SOLID FOUNDATION
• REINFORCED PILINGS
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Shingle roof; Crawl space or no basement
• Exterior features: Lagoon waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Gas cooking; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove hood
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3 total)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating with 2 heat zones; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments and blinds/shades; Ceiling fans; Central vacuum; Attic fan; Garage door opener; Gas cooking
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $880k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $821k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $821k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.0% in Ocean Gate — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#439 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime B+, housing B+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($867k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $820,914 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.59%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $602,742
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
211 Pine Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	1,715 (+8%)	3mo	$827,000	$482	61
215 Fernwood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-5%)	23mo	$575,000	$381	55
217 N Bay Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,744 (+10%)	6mo	$635,000	$364	46
299 Parisen Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-6%)	19mo	$399,000	$268	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-122,637
• Equity at exit: $131,211

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-80,585
• Equity at exit: $76,086

Cash invested: $246,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08721

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,615
• Tax from tax record: −$767 /mo · $9,200/yr
• Insurance: −$367
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,724
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,816

Max offer price $880,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $220,000
• Closing costs: $26,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
830 Atlantic City Blvd Bayville, NJ	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,800	$1.61	43d	1	1.09mi
406 Lawrence Dr Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1836	$16,000	$8.71	1d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $880,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $880,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $880,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $880,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $880,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $880,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $880,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $880,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $880,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $880,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $880,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $880,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $880,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $880,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $880,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,200 · $767/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,556 · $1,296/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,356/yr (+$530/mo · 69.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $98,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,294
• − Property taxes: −$9,200
• − Insurance: −$9,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,881
• − Management: −$7,881
• − Depreciation: −$25,600
• Taxable loss: −$10,864
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,607
• After-tax cash flow: $6,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Ocean Gate

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #439
• US rank: #16152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,768
• Population (ZIP): 22,464

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -320.09%
• Current HPI: 346.8393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $880,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,200 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.