7204 Gray Wolf Ln · McKinney, TX 75071

$245,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2023 4,617 sqft lot $242/sqft · 19% below area Est $302k · 19% under $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottage-style 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with an attached 2-car garage located in North McKinney, north of US 380, in The Preserve at Honey Creek. This well-designed home features a smooth layout, where the cozy living area flows naturally into the kitchen and dining spaces, making both daily life and entertaining guests easy. Recent updates include a custom glass shower, ceiling fans in each room, and laminate flooring in the bedrooms. Enjoy the front porch and a large backyard enclosed by a 6-foot privacy wood fence. The exterior features Hardie plank siding and fiber optic internet availability. The location provides easy access to Allen and Frisco, ideal for commuting or weekend outings. Residents have access to nearby neighborhood parks, including Hummingbird Park and Red Tail Hawk Park, as well as community amenities like a pool with a lazy river, playground, walking trails, pavilion, open green spaces, and scenic ponds. The HOA is $833 per year. The property is zoned to McKinney ISD and offers convenient access to Historic Downtown McKinney and nearby Melissa, Texas, with shopping at HEB and Buc-ee’s, plus upcoming restaurants. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy comfortable, cottage-style living with parks, amenities, and the charm of Historic Downtown McKinney.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Custom glass shower
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• ATTACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• CUSTOM GLASS SHOWER
• CEILING FANS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• FRONT PORCH
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.5% in McKinney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#115 in TX, #3,716 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mckinney ISD (suburban): math 54% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #72 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 2167 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,991 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.85%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,007
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -18.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7204 Gray Wolf Ln	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,012 (0%)	0mo	$245,000	$242	100
3201 Mountain Lion Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,012 (0%)	12mo	$247,000	$244	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-63,062
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-99,639
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75071

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 2167
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,984 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$389 /mo · $4,670/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,335

Max offer price $195,991

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-208	+0% $-277	+5% $-347	+10% $-416
Rent	-10% $-434	-5% $-356	+0% $-277	+5% $-199	+10% $-121
Rate	-1.0pp $-154	-0.5pp $-215	base $-277	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-406

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7205 Gray Wolf Ln McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,099	$1.66	7d	1	0.04mi
7205 Gray Wolf Ln McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,899	$1.50	0d	1	0.04mi
3212 Coyote Way McKinney, TX	3.0	3.0	1262	$2,100	$1.66	45d	1	0.08mi
3112 Coyote Way McKinney, TX	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,675	$1.66	20d	1	0.13mi
7413 Jackrabbit Ave McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,799	$1.42	7d	1	0.14mi
7413 Jackrabbit Ave McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,838	$1.45	20d	1	0.14mi
7336 Woodpecker Dr McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,000	$1.42	23d	1	0.19mi
7520 Gray Wolf Ln McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,100	$1.49	20d	1	0.20mi
7412 Woodpecker Dr McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,050	$1.46	4d	1	0.22mi
7408 Bluebell Ln McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$2,050	$1.62	14d	1	0.22mi
7733 Ruellia Rd McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,995	$1.42	21d	1	0.28mi
3604 Esperanza St McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,900	$1.35	14d	1	0.40mi
7816 Ruellia Rd McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$2,200	$1.74	5d	1	0.41mi
7813 Thornton Dr McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,950	$1.32	26d	1	0.43mi
7713 Gus Wilson Dr McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,300	$1.55	45d	1	0.44mi
3500 Great Egret Way McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$2,190	$1.74	45d	1	0.45mi
7701 Rutherford Ln McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,599	$2.06	45d	1	0.52mi
1704 Lercara Ln McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$2,199	$1.49	4d	1	0.52mi
7925 Clements St McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,100	$1.42	45d	1	0.62mi
3205 Kiskadee Ct McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,299	$1.59	7d	1	0.64mi
7917 Gilbert St McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,095	$1.42	45d	1	0.66mi
8316 Catalpa Ln McKinney, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	7d	1	0.67mi
2537 Finch Hollow Dr McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,449	$1.72	7d	1	0.67mi
1533 Kites Xing McKinney, TX	3.0	3.0	1440	$2,395	$1.66	45d	1	0.70mi
1412 Glee Blvd McKinney, TX	1.0	1.0	739	$1,389	$1.88	45d	1	0.70mi
1436 Glee Blvd McKinney, TX	3.0	3.0	1440	$2,364	$1.64	45d	1	0.72mi
2580 Dulaney Dr McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,329	$1.79	7d	1	0.74mi
1330 Makore Pl McKinney, TX	2.0	2.0	1354	$2,447	$1.81	45d	1	0.77mi
2525 Perkinsview Pl McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,299	$1.76	26d	1	0.84mi
7117 Caspian Blvd McKinney, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1751	$2,226	$1.27	0d	40	0.85mi
8708 Thrush Trl McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,950	$1.38	20d	1	0.87mi
8117 Brookhaven Dr McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,309	$1.77	7d	1	0.93mi
3329 Turkey Trot Ct McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,829	$1.30	45d	1	0.95mi
8901 Red Fox Trl McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,829	$1.44	45d	1	0.96mi
3505 Flicker Ln McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,670	$2.11	23d	1	1.00mi
3221 Barred Owl Way McKinney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1759	$2,299	$1.31	0d	17	1.00mi
3605 Flicker Ln McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,199	$1.72	3d	1	1.01mi
9017 Thrasher Trl McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,995	$1.41	45d	1	1.06mi
9104 Grackle Pl McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,990	$1.38	18d	1	1.07mi
9113 Thrasher Trl McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$2,100	$1.46	13d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr
• Likely covers: internetpool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical Active Option Contract 1289-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1289 chars)

   Cottage-style 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with an attached 2-car garage located in North McKinney, north of US 380, in The Preserve at Honey Creek. This well-designed home features a smooth layout, where the cozy living area flows naturally into the kitchen and dining spaces, making both daily life and entertaining guests easy. Recent updates include a custom glass shower, ceiling fans in each room, and laminate flooring in the bedrooms. Enjoy the front porch and a large backyard enclosed by a 6-foot privacy wood fence. The exterior features Hardie plank siding and fiber optic internet availability. The location provides easy access to Allen and Frisco, ideal for commuting or weekend outings. Residents have access to nearby neighborhood parks, including Hummingbird Park and Red Tail Hawk Park, as well as community amenities like a pool with a lazy river, playground, walking trails, pavilion, open green spaces, and scenic ponds. The HOA is $833 per year. The property is zoned to McKinney ISD and offers convenient access to Historic Downtown McKinney and nearby Melissa, Texas, with shopping at HEB and Buc-ee’s, plus upcoming restaurants. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy comfortable, cottage-style living with parks, amenities, and the charm of Historic Downtown McKinney.

2. 2026-03-10
   listed $245,000 Active 1289-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1289 chars)

   Cottage-style 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with an attached 2-car garage located in North McKinney, north of US 380, in The Preserve at Honey Creek. This well-designed home features a smooth layout, where the cozy living area flows naturally into the kitchen and dining spaces, making both daily life and entertaining guests easy. Recent updates include a custom glass shower, ceiling fans in each room, and laminate flooring in the bedrooms. Enjoy the front porch and a large backyard enclosed by a 6-foot privacy wood fence. The exterior features Hardie plank siding and fiber optic internet availability. The location provides easy access to Allen and Frisco, ideal for commuting or weekend outings. Residents have access to nearby neighborhood parks, including Hummingbird Park and Red Tail Hawk Park, as well as community amenities like a pool with a lazy river, playground, walking trails, pavilion, open green spaces, and scenic ponds. The HOA is $833 per year. The property is zoned to McKinney ISD and offers convenient access to Historic Downtown McKinney and nearby Melissa, Texas, with shopping at HEB and Buc-ee’s, plus upcoming restaurants. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy comfortable, cottage-style living with parks, amenities, and the charm of Historic Downtown McKinney.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,670 · $389/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,670 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$4,670
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,905
• − Management: −$1,905
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$7,572
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,817
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mckinney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829850
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $78,283
• Composite: 50.46/100
• National rank: #1862
• State rank: #72 of 826 in TX

Livability — McKinney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #3716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McKinney, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 232,161
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,964
• Household income: $132,447
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1682.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.92%
• Current HPI: 254.4946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.15%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $245,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+51.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,670 · +160.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.