12651 Ashford Meadow Dr · Houston, TX 77082

$275,000

8 bd · 8.0 ba · 4,044 sqft · MultiFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 1981 Fair condition 3,595 sqft lot $68/sqft · 25% below area Est $368k · 25% under $1440/mo HOA · 114% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Strategically located in the Meadows on the Mews community, this fourplex is a rare value-add opportunity priced aggressively in one of Houston’s high-demand rental corridors. With strong cash flow potential from day one and room to increase returns over time, this property is ideal for investors looking for both immediate income and long-term upside. Each unit features a functional 2-bedroom, 2-bath layout with spacious open-concept living areas and cozy fireplaces that attract long-term tenants. Updated kitchens include modern cabinetry and durable granite countertops for a clean, low-maintenance finish. Designated parking, consistent rental demand, and quick access to major Houston

Key facts

• Cozy fireplaces
• Modern cabinetry
• Functional layout

Tags

• MEADOWS ON THE MEWS COMMUNITY
• STRONG CASH FLOW POTENTIAL
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• COZY FIREPLACES
• UPDATED KITCHENS
• MODERN CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Managed by Genesis Community Management; Association fee $1,440 monthly covering common areas and structure maintenance

Exterior

• Security: Guarded community
• Utilities: Has heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential income property; Multiple-unit building (4 total units)
• Construction: Built in 1981
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Unit bedrooms: Some units with 2 bedrooms (property contains multiple units)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (per unit data indicates 2 full bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $275k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $56/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $267k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heflin El (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 601 students, 89% FRL); O'Donnell Middle (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 1,230 students, 89% FRL); Alief Isd J J A E P (13 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,053/mo this rent would consume 97% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 3722% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.15%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,608
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -25.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12655 Ashford Meadow Dr Unit ABCD	0.01mi	8/8.0	4,044 (0%)	6mo	$289,999	$72	95
12654 Ashford Meadow Dr Dr	0.05mi	8/8.0	3,746 (-7%)	5mo	$299,500	$80	81
12646 Ashford Meadow Dr #4	0.05mi	8/8.0	4,272 (+6%)	23mo	$225,000	$53	69
12659 Ashford Meadow Dr #4	0.01mi	8/2.0	3,746 (-7%)	16mo	$370,000	$99	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.21% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-34,581
• Equity at exit: $50,837

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-55,773
• Equity at exit: $41,017

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77082

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 18.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,440
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,061
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,768

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $320	+0% $225	+5% $130	+10% $35
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $25	+0% $225	+5% $424	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $295	base $225	+0.5pp $154	+1.0pp $81

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	2	$5,052
Total (4 units)			$5,053

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,440 · $17,280/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $275,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $300,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $300,000 Active 861-char remark
17. 2026-05-01
    historical $1,150
18. 2026-04-21
    listed $1,150
19. 2026-04-17
    historical
20. 2026-04-15
    listed $300,000 Active
21. 2026-03-09
    historical $1,200
22. 2026-03-05
    listed $1,200
23. 2026-02-18
    historical $1,200
24. 2026-01-20
    listed $1,200
25. 2026-01-13
    historical $1,200
26. 2026-01-09
    listed $1,200
27. 2026-01-05
    historical $1,200
28. 2026-01-03
    listed $1,200
29. 2025-02-03
    historical $1,275
30. 2025-02-01
    listed $1,275

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 84% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$6,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,851
• − Management: −$4,851
• − HOA: −$17,280
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$88
• After-tax cash flow: $2,787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This fourplex presents a moderate rehab opportunity with fair condition. Immediate repairs are needed in the kitchen and bathroom, while painting and landscaping would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen appliances — Older and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — Old and in need of cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts tenants
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances the aesthetic and functionality
• Both Paint interior walls — Improves the appearance and value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the property's curb appeal and attracts tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen appliances · Older and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Old and in need of cleaning	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts tenants ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances the aesthetic and functionality ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Improves the appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the property's curb appeal and attracts tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 59,412
• Household income: $62,455
• Rent vs Own: 63.6% rent · 36.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3722.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 27% White 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Armenian 2% Arab 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 4% Arabic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.21%
• Current HPI: 237.2183
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.62%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+21468.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Rental Removed $1,150 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-04-21 Listed for Rent $1,150 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Rental Removed $1,200 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-03-05 Listed for Rent $1,200 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-02-18 Rental Removed $1,200 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-20 Listed for Rent $1,200 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-13 Rental Removed $1,200 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-09 Listed for Rent $1,200 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-05 Rental Removed $1,200 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-03 Listed for Rent $1,200 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-02-03 Rental Removed $1,275 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-02-01 Listed for Rent $1,275 RENTALBEAST