65084 Lagoon Forest Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32097

$338,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,693 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2016 7,405 sqft lot Est $328k · at est. $9/mo HOA ↓ 54% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't Miss this one! This Beautiful home located in a great North Florida & Nassau county community. From Foyer to the Great Room, this lovely 4/2 open floor plan with lots of light is sure to please. A few highlights include a Master suite, large kitchen with breakfast bar and walk in pantry. There is also plenty of room in the backyard for all your family pets. This community has the best of both worlds with it's nature preserve feel while still being close to great, shopping, restaurants and A rated schools! The community amenities are abundant with its Pools, Playgrounds, Fitness center, Tennis, Basketball and Baseball courts. Plus if you want to get outdoors in the water the easy to reach Boat ramps and Beaches are only minutes away.

Key facts

• Irrigation
• Privacy fence
• Ss appliances

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• IRRIGATION
• PRIVACY FENCE
• CALIFORNIA BREAKFAST BAR
• SS APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Sidewalks in the community; Community (not a private) pool available
• HOA & community: Community association with amenities including basketball court, clubhouse, fitness center, jogging path, park, pickleball, playground, tennis courts, children’s pool, and trash service; Annual association fee of $105; CDD fee applicable

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Composition siding
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Fenced backyard with wood privacy fencing; Front and rear sprinklers; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Open floor plan; Pantry; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $338k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $199k; list at $338k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,114 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.11%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,442
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65062 Mossy Creek Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,874 (+11%)	3mo	$299,000	$160	72
70013 Misty Lake Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,705 (+1%)	2mo	$329,000	$193	70
65114 Forest Glen Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (+1%)	2mo	$332,000	$194	70
65394 River Glen Pkwy	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (+1%)	1mo	$348,000	$203	67
75078 Glenspring Way	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (+4%)	6mo	$350,000	$198	66
75047 Ravenwood Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,630 (-4%)	1mo	$309,900	$190	62
65138 Forest Glen Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,856 (+10%)	2mo	$330,000	$178	62
65688 Edgewater Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (+0%)	6mo	$355,000	$209	56
75599 Bridgewater Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,856 (+10%)	5mo	$330,000	$178	56
77408 Cobblestone Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (+2%)	5mo	$334,000	$193	54
65656 Edgewater Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,812 (+7%)	3mo	$374,900	$207	52
66068 Edgewater Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,902 (+12%)	6mo	$389,000	$205	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $173,120
• Equity at exit: $304,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.47×
• Total profit: $517,476
• Equity at exit: $656,660

Cash invested: $94,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,773
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,687/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,822

Max offer price $308,535

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,500
• Closing costs: $10,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
65013 Lagoon Forest Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,800	$1.25	10d	1	0.15mi
75346 Bridgewater Dr Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,300	$1.34	24d	1	0.23mi
75094 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2193	$2,495	$1.14	2d	1	0.30mi
75008 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	0.34mi
75094 Glenspring Way Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,500	$1.22	24d	1	0.34mi
70305 Winding River Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	3.0	2042	$2,500	$1.22	24d	1	0.41mi
75045 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$2,310	$1.37	20d	1	0.43mi
65303 River Glen Pkwy Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2160	$2,400	$1.11	24d	1	0.43mi
75075 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,399	$1.29	4d	1	0.44mi
65343 River Glen Pkwy Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$2,195	$1.28	24d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolgym

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $338,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $338,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $338,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $338,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on marketlisting id $338,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $345,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $345,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $345,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $345,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-04-17
    listed $345,000 Active
11. 2018-08-15
    soldstatus $199,000
12. 2018-08-13
    soldstatus $199,000 753-char remark

    Show marketing remark (753 chars)

    Don't Miss this one! This Beautiful home located in a great North Florida & Nassau county community. From Foyer to the Great Room, this lovely 4/2 open floor plan with lots of light is sure to please. A few highlights include a Master suite, large kitchen with breakfast bar and walk in pantry. There is also plenty of room in the backyard for all your family pets. This community has the best of both worlds with it's nature preserve feel while still being close to great, shopping, restaurants and A rated schools! The community amenities are abundant with its Pools, Playgrounds, Fitness center, Tennis, Basketball and Baseball courts. Plus if you want to get outdoors in the water the easy to reach Boat ramps and Beaches are only minutes away.

13. 2018-07-22
    listed $199,000 753-char remark

    Show marketing remark (753 chars)

    Don't Miss this one! This Beautiful home located in a great North Florida & Nassau county community. From Foyer to the Great Room, this lovely 4/2 open floor plan with lots of light is sure to please. A few highlights include a Master suite, large kitchen with breakfast bar and walk in pantry. There is also plenty of room in the backyard for all your family pets. This community has the best of both worlds with it's nature preserve feel while still being close to great, shopping, restaurants and A rated schools! The community amenities are abundant with its Pools, Playgrounds, Fitness center, Tennis, Basketball and Baseball courts. Plus if you want to get outdoors in the water the easy to reach Boat ramps and Beaches are only minutes away.

14. 2016-05-25
    soldstatus $149,130
15. 2016-04-01
    listed $149,130
16. 2016-02-10
    listed $150,435
17. 2015-10-13
    soldstatus $752,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,687 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,687 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,933
• − Property taxes: −$3,687
• − Insurance: −$1,690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,507
• − Management: −$2,507
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$9,833
• Taxable loss: −$7,931
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,903
• After-tax cash flow: $-98/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-54.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $345,000 realMLS
• 2018-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $199,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-13 Sold (MLS) $199,000 realMLS
• 2018-07-22 Listed $199,000 realMLS
• 2016-05-25 Sold (MLS) $149,130 AINCAR
• 2016-04-01 Listed $149,130 realMLS
• 2016-02-10 Listed $150,435 AINCAR
• 2015-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $752,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,687 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.