11681 Box Elder Way · Vance, AL 35490

$269,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2009 Est $301k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 1,872 square feet of living space with an open and functional floor plan. The spacious living area features a cozy fireplace and plenty of natural light. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and flows into a dining area—great for entertaining. The split-bedroom layout offers privacy, with a generous primary suite and well-sized secondary bedrooms. Situated on a large, flat lot, this home provides plenty of outdoor space to enjoy. Conveniently located just minutes from I-20/59 and the Mercedes-Benz plant, this home offers an easy commute to both Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. Schedule a showing today!!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2009
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (35.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vance Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #367 of 627 statewide, top 60%, 499 students, 69% FRL); Brookwood Middle School (math 8% / reading 36%, grade F, #182 of 257 statewide, top 71%, 796 students, 65% FRL); Brookwood High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,078 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $195k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,681 (35.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,392
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11681 Box Elder Way	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,872 (0%)	1mo	$276,900	$148	97
11463 Walden Trce	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-5%)	8mo	$250,000	$141	72
11621 Cedar Glades Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,747 (-7%)	10mo	$281,000	$161	68
17847 Alecia Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-12%)	1mo	$289,900	$176	67
17818 Alecia Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,693 (-10%)	11mo	$274,000	$162	66
17848 Alecia Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-12%)	2mo	$289,900	$176	66
11382 Tingle Tangle Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-5%)	12mo	$284,900	$161	61
17811 Alecia Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-12%)	12mo	$250,000	$152	61
11388 Tingle Tangle Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-5%)	12mo	$285,000	$161	60
17865 Alecia Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-12%)	10mo	$279,500	$169	57
17917 April Leigh Cir	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-5%)	12mo	$284,900	$161	56
11481 Big Sandy Springs Rd	0.52mi	3/3.5	2,100 (+12%)	5mo	$377,500	$180	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $133,413
• Equity at exit: $243,236

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $403,194
• Equity at exit: $524,549

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,737 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $665/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,005

Max offer price $232,587

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-135	+0% $-212	+5% $-288	+10% $-365
Rent	-10% $-349	-5% $-280	+0% $-212	+5% $-143	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-76	-0.5pp $-143	base $-212	+0.5pp $-282	+1.0pp $-353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11565 Cedar Glades Dr Vance, AL	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,661	$1.03	12d	1	0.08mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   listed $269,999 Active
3. 2009-09-02
   soldstatus $194,920

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $665 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$442/yr (+$37/mo · 66.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$665
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$7,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,797
• After-tax cash flow: $-744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+38.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — WAMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $269,999 WAMLS
• 2009-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $194,920 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $665 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.