418 Broken Bow · Quitman, TX 75783

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2001 0.35 ac lot $53/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer Upper at Lake Fork Texas! Have you been searching for a Lake property that you can afford? Welcome to 418 Broken Bow Drive at Lake Fork Village. Bring your ideas for this large 3 bedroom home with an office off of the master bedroom. Whether you are fixing this home up for yourself or if you would like some short term or long term rental property, this is a great opportunity to own a piece of property on Lake Fork. With a private boat ramp for potential clients that come to fish Lake Fork or for family members to enjoy the pool, community center or fishing pier. There are plenty of activities at this gated community.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fishing pier
• Community center

Tags

• LAKE PROPERTY
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• FISHING PIER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $664 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 4.2% in Quitman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in TX, #3,504 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Quitman ISD (town): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #381 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Quitman El (math 40% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,437 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 581 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.93%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,720
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Broken Bow Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,712 (-11%)	15mo	$155,000	$91	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $30,170
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $80,885
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75783

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $848/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-28
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $848 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$524/yr (+$44/mo · 61.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$848
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $7,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,734
• After-tax cash flow: $6,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quitman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836300
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,081
• Composite: 34.94/100
• National rank: #5063
• State rank: #381 of 826 in TX

Livability — Quitman

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3504

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,011

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.83%
• Current HPI: 234.4883
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $75,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $848 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.