3424 Conservation Rd · Alma, IL 62807

$59,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1964 0.61 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Quiet, serene setting with beautiful lake views. This is your chance to have access to a spot at Patoka Club Lake! Property includes a 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home with an option to convert the laundry room back to a bedroom. Home has one of the best views of the lake which includes a view of the entrance to the area, community building, and campground. Home has replacement windows, but is otherwise ready for some fresh updates. The site includes a floating dock with space available for up to two fishing boats, a 2-car carport, shed and an outdoor storage container. As a member of the Conservation Club, you have access to the ~25 acre lake for swimming and fishing and ~100 acres for hunting

Key facts

• Lake views
• Access to 100 acres
• Floating dock

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• ACCESS TO PATOKA CLUB LAKE
• FLOATING DOCK
• ACCESS TO 25 ACRE LAKE
• ACCESS TO 100 ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured single-family residence; One level / single-story; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Dock; Deck; Patio; Shed(s) and outbuilding; Waterfront lot with lake privileges (Patoka Club Lake); Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Range; Refrigerator; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($814 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,241 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Patoka CUSD 100 (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #765 of 919 in IL (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $58,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.37%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $24,710
• Equity at exit: $30,029

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $64,108
• Equity at exit: $48,845

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62807

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $814 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $524

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $270	-5% $249	+0% $229	+5% $208	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $165	-5% $197	+0% $229	+5% $261	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $259	-0.5pp $244	base $229	+0.5pp $213	+1.0pp $197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $59,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $68,000 Active 835-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$781
• − Management: −$781
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $1,905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$457
• After-tax cash flow: $2,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patoka CUSD 100
• NCES district ID: 1730870
• Math proficiency: 10% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,283
• Composite: 17.22/100
• National rank: #14167
• State rank: #765 of 919 in IL

Livability — Alma

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1241
• US rank: #23258

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 816

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.90%
• Current HPI: 125.6683
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $59,900 CIBR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $68,000 CIBR