2400 E Baseline Ave #206 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$123,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · Manufactured · 125 Days on market

Built 1996 Est $87k · 41% over ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Rancho Mirage, a desirable 55+ active adult community in Apache Junction near the Superstition Mountains, with beautiful views of the surrounding desert landscape. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, heated pool and spa, pickleball, tennis, shuffleboard, fitness center, library, dog park, RV/boat storage, and planned social activities. This well maintained 3 bed, 2 bath home sits on a desirable corner lot and is offered fully furnished, making it move-in ready. Lovingly cared for by the original owners with recent updates including the roof, water heater, washer, dryer, dishwasher, and disposal. Lot rent approx. $938/month (buyer to verify).

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1996

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount: $938 monthly
• HOA & community: Land lease community with a monthly land lease fee; Association covers sewer, water, trash, street maintenance and grounds maintenance; Community amenities include: pool, community spa (heated), golf, pickleball courts, tennis courts, biking/walking paths and a fitness center; No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Golf cart garage; 2-car carport
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Mountain views
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Gravel/stone front and back; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Laminate countertops; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Full bath in the master bedroom; Skylights; Dual-pane windows; Bath grab bars; Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $772 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.89%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $87,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2400 E Baseline Ave #125	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (-5%)	1mo	$82,900	$60	82
3355 S Cortez Rd #28	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	0mo	$77,000	$51	77
2400 E Baseline Ave #163	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	2mo	$80,000	$53	76
2400 E Baseline Ave #309	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-11%)	1mo	$131,000	$101	72
2400 E Baseline Ave #44	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+8%)	2mo	$115,000	$73	69
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #16	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+4%)	0mo	$119,900	$79	59
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #91	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-2%)	1mo	$85,000	$60	58
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #13	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-1%)	2mo	$59,000	$41	57
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #93	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+8%)	0mo	$80,000	$51	53
3301 S Goldfield Rd #1054	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (+9%)	1mo	$165,000	$104	52
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2095	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (+12%)	2mo	$129,900	$80	45
3500 S Tomahawk Rd #188	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	1mo	$75,000	$60	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $26,344
• Equity at exit: $18,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $74,751
• Equity at exit: $10,635

Cash invested: $34,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$154 /mo · $1,845/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $772

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,076

Max offer price $123,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,750
• Closing costs: $3,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3705 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	24d	1	0.09mi
3879 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,910	$1.21	24d	1	0.16mi
3333 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,900	$2.09	24d	1	0.23mi
3448 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,848	$1.56	11d	1	0.30mi
3478 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,850	$1.15	5d	1	0.31mi
3277 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,770	$1.10	3d	1	0.34mi
2681 E Boulder Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	3.5	1776	$2,200	$1.24	24d	1	0.48mi
2653 S Powell Rd Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.0	1560	$1,945	$1.25	5d	1	0.66mi
3301 S Goldfield Rd Unit 4077 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1548	$1,850	$1.20	24d	1	0.72mi
700 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,795	$1.54	5d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $123,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $123,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $123,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $123,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $123,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $123,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $123,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $123,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $123,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $123,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $123,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $123,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    price $123,000
15. 2026-02-06
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,890
• − Property taxes: −$1,845
• − Insurance: −$615
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$3,578
• Taxable income: $7,766
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,864
• After-tax cash flow: $7,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $123,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $139,900 ARMLS