172 Sophie Kathryn Dr · Barboursville, VA 22923

$334,625

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Townhouse · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Est $318k · 5% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Rutledge at Essence at Creekside Townhomes, a townhome neighborhood with community pool, clubhouse, playgrounds, and trail access to outdoor recreation. This Rutledge end unit spans two levels with 1,450 square feet, three bedrooms, two full baths, a powder room, and a one-car front-load garage. The main level opens into a connected kitchen, dining, and living area, with a kitchen island giving the space a natural gathering point. Upstairs, the primary suite sits at one end of the hall with its own bath, while two additional bedrooms and a second full bath complete the upper level. A walk-in laundry room sits between the bedrooms. The end unit position brings in extra natura

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Playgrounds

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUNDS
• TRAIL ACCESS
• CORNER UNIT
• EXTRA WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Modified: 2026-06-10
• Financial info: List price $334,625

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family home (Spec — The Rutledge plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 172 Sophie Kathryn Dr, Barboursville, VA 22923

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec home — The Rutledge plan; Living area approximately 1,470

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $335k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-888/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.9% in Barboursville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ruckersville Elementary (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #583 of 1,108 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,360 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
66 Grayson Village Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$321,990	$219	96
56 Grayson Village Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	4mo	$297,490	$202	96
76 Sophie Kathryn Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$318,253	$216	93
28 Grayson Village Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$299,990	$204	93
80 Sophie Kathryn Dr Lot 136	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$326,630	$222	93
84 Sophie Kathryn Dr Lot 137	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$308,990	$210	92
44 Grayson Village Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$318,990	$217	90
30 Grayson Village Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$309,990	$211	90
20 Grayson Village Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$324,393	$221	90
40 Grayson Village Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$316,730	$215	90
34 Grayson Village Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$299,990	$204	90
45 Grayson Village Dr #177	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$324,630	$221	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-58,892
• Equity at exit: $49,894

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-57,175
• Equity at exit: $28,932

Cash invested: $93,695 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,755
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$418 /mo · $5,019/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,927

Max offer price $323,921

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $42	+0% $-74	+5% $-190	+10% $-305
Rent	-10% $-298	-5% $-186	+0% $-74	+5% $38	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $11	base $-74	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,656
• Closing costs: $10,039
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	14d	1	0.66mi
591 Preddy Creek Rd Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	4d	1	0.97mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	15d	1	1.13mi
100 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	2.0	2.0–2.5	1272	$2,099	$1.65	0d	23	1.19mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $334,625 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $334,625 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,625 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,625 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,625 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,625 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $334,625 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $334,625 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,744
• − Property taxes: −$5,019
• − Insurance: −$1,673
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,720
• − Management: −$2,720
• − Depreciation: −$9,735
• Taxable loss: −$6,609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,586
• After-tax cash flow: $698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story townhome is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Barboursville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• City population: 6,435
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B