2154 Allen Rd · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31216

$159,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1940 0.78 ac lot Est $173k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this cozy 4 bedroom 2 full bathroom farmhouse. This home has the character and charm of a traditional farmhouse, with modern renovations throughout. The kitchen boast an open concept with lots of cabinets and featuring a center island for additional storage and countertop space. The 4th bedroom is so cozy and offers great natural sunlight you might declare it a sunroom. Grab some rocking chairs for the front porch so that you can relax and enjoy your favorite sweet tea and lemonade as you listen to the peace and calm in the air. Conveniently located in South Bibb County, with quick access to interstate 75. This home is a must see!

Key facts

• 0.78 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 31 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.62%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6168 Edwards Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,708 (-1%)	2mo	$170,000	$100	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-10,387
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,137
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31216

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,470/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,294

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2024-01-04
   soldstatus $154,000
2. 2023-12-21
   soldstatus $154,000 Sold 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   Welcome home to this cozy 4 bedroom 2 full bathroom farmhouse. This home has the character and charm of a traditional farmhouse, with modern renovations throughout. The kitchen boast an open concept with lots of cabinets and featuring a center island for additional storage and countertop space. The 4th bedroom is so cozy and offers great natural sunlight you might declare it a sunroom. Grab some rocking chairs for the front porch so that you can relax and enjoy your favorite sweet tea and lemonade as you listen to the peace and calm in the air. Conveniently located in South Bibb County, with quick access to interstate 75. This home is a must see!

3. 2023-11-26
   status Pending
4. 2023-11-11
   status Under Contract 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   Welcome home to this cozy 4 bedroom 2 full bathroom farmhouse. This home has the character and charm of a traditional farmhouse, with modern renovations throughout. The kitchen boast an open concept with lots of cabinets and featuring a center island for additional storage and countertop space. The 4th bedroom is so cozy and offers great natural sunlight you might declare it a sunroom. Grab some rocking chairs for the front porch so that you can relax and enjoy your favorite sweet tea and lemonade as you listen to the peace and calm in the air. Conveniently located in South Bibb County, with quick access to interstate 75. This home is a must see!

5. 2023-10-23
   listed $159,000 Active
6. 2023-10-20
   listed $159,000 New 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   Welcome home to this cozy 4 bedroom 2 full bathroom farmhouse. This home has the character and charm of a traditional farmhouse, with modern renovations throughout. The kitchen boast an open concept with lots of cabinets and featuring a center island for additional storage and countertop space. The 4th bedroom is so cozy and offers great natural sunlight you might declare it a sunroom. Grab some rocking chairs for the front porch so that you can relax and enjoy your favorite sweet tea and lemonade as you listen to the peace and calm in the air. Conveniently located in South Bibb County, with quick access to interstate 75. This home is a must see!

7. 2022-11-17
   soldstatus $65,000 405-char remark

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   NEW ROOF on this one level county 4 bedroom home. Home has been recently surveyed and appraised. Ignore tax record information. Call listing agent if you have questions. Home Needs a lot of TLC and is sold AS IS. This home will not finance FHA, VA or Conventional. Cash buyers only. Home behind this one is a family member. Four (4) bedrooms plus formal dining room. Enclosed porch off of kitchen at back.

8. 2022-11-17
   soldstatus $65,000

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   NEW ROOF on this one level county 4 bedroom home. Home has been recently surveyed and appraised. Ignore tax record information. Call listing agent if you have questions. Home Needs a lot of TLC and is sold AS IS. This home will not finance FHA, VA or Conventional. Cash buyers only. Home behind this one is a family member. Four (4) bedrooms plus formal dining room. Enclosed porch off of kitchen at back.

9. 2022-11-01
   listed $65,000 405-char remark

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   NEW ROOF on this one level county 4 bedroom home. Home has been recently surveyed and appraised. Ignore tax record information. Call listing agent if you have questions. Home Needs a lot of TLC and is sold AS IS. This home will not finance FHA, VA or Conventional. Cash buyers only. Home behind this one is a family member. Four (4) bedrooms plus formal dining room. Enclosed porch off of kitchen at back.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,470 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,470 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,470
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $1,333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$320
• After-tax cash flow: $3,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 16,328
• Household income: $72,452
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.37%
• Current HPI: 211.3565
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.31%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+136.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2024-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-21 Sold (MLS) $154,000 GAMLS
• 2023-11-26 Pending — CGMLS
• 2023-11-11 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-10-23 Listed $159,000 CGMLS
• 2023-10-20 Listed $159,000 GAMLS
• 2022-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-17 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MGMLS
• 2022-11-01 Listed $65,000 MGMLS

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,470 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.