3512 Baywater Dr · Columbia, SC 29209

$154,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,131 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1971 8,581 sqft lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3512 Baywater Dr, Columbia, SC—a charming one-story, three-bedroom, one and a half bath single-family home offering 1,131 square feet of comfortable living space. Built in 1971, this brick home blends timeless character with everyday functionality. Inside, you’ll find a welcoming living room, a cozy family room, and a bright kitchen filled with natural light. The interior features neutral colors accented by rich wood details, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, making meal prep a breeze. Outside, enjoy the convenience of a fenced yard, a one-car carport, and a classic brick exterior that adds las

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Brick exterior
• Fenced yard

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• ONE CAR CARPORT
• BRICK EXTERIOR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• WELCOMING LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.0% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#18 in SC, #2,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Richland 01 (urban): math 26% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #54 of 80 in SC (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Caughman Road Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #452 of 597 statewide, top 78%, 707 students, 100% FRL); Lower Richland High (math 5% / reading 64%, grade F, #185 of 196 statewide, top 94%, 1,244 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 295 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,472 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (1,096 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.97%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-15,145
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,442
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29209

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,689/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,499

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Shoreditch Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	1.5	1378	$1,586	$1.15	19d	1	0.13mi
313 Shoreditch Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	1.5	1056	$1,775	$1.68	23d	1	0.15mi
385 Saskatoon Dr Unit 385 Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1330	$2,000	$1.50	23d	1	0.29mi
302 Crooked Pine Ct Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,883	$1.35	23d	1	0.31mi
101 Shagbark Ave Columbia, SC	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	19d	1	0.62mi
429 Mockernut Ln Columbia, SC	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,250	$1.24	23d	1	0.66mi
329 Ovanta Rd Columbia, SC	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	23d	1	0.69mi
4022 Ulmer Rd Columbia, SC	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1202	$1,322	$1.10	19d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   historical Active - Contingent
3. 2026-03-26
   price $154,900
4. 2026-02-04
   listed $164,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,689 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,689 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$3,689
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$243
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$58
• After-tax cash flow: $2,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland 01
• NCES district ID: 4503360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,931
• Composite: 25.94/100
• National rank: #7335
• State rank: #54 of 80 in SC

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #2436

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Richland County · 389,530 people
• City population: 335,994
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 38,041
• Household income: $58,772
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1716.0

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 459,667 people
• By 2030: 487,524 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 542,035 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 595,371 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 732,998 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 820,415 · +78.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 39% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.6) · D 66.4% · R 31.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.7pp toward D · 2008: 28.9pp · 2024: 34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.6 2020: D+38.3 2016: D+32.9 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.10%
• Current HPI: 205.5679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $154,900 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $164,900 Consolidated MLS

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,689 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.