Sage Plan · Parrish, FL 34219

$539,950

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 224 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The stunning Sage plan offers two stories of thoughtfully designed living space. On the main floor, you'll find open dining and great rooms with an adjacent covered patio, and a well-appointed kitchen boasting a walk-in pantry, center island and optional gourmet features. You can also select either a powder room or full bath and a study or bedroom to round out this level. Upstairs, discover an airy loft, a convenient laundry, two shared bathrooms, and four bedrooms-highlighted by a lavish primary suite showcasing a generous walk-in closet and a private bath that may include deluxe features.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 224 days

🏗️ New construction. The $539,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $744,418.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $540k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $437k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $382k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $382k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 4.7% in Parrish — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2985 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($475k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $382,490 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.22%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $744,418
• List price: $539,950
• Delta: -27.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15309 27th Ct E	0.10mi	4/3.5	3,471 (+3%)	8mo	$710,000	$205	83
14538 Banks Ct	0.13mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,030 (-10%)	2mo	$499,999	$165	69
1811 151st Ter E	0.42mi	4/4.0	3,542 (+5%)	2mo	$850,000	$240	68
2410 156th Pl E	0.43mi	4/3.0	3,556 (+6%)	1mo	$1,095,000	$308	68
2106 149th Pl E	0.27mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,089 (-8%)	6mo	$785,000	$254	62
14910 15th St E	0.74mi	4/3.0	3,300 (-2%)	4mo	$740,000	$224	58
14914 15th St E	0.74mi	4/4.0	3,489 (+4%)	1mo	$685,000	$196	57
15519 29th St E	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,979 (-11%)	7mo	$785,000	$264	50
2615 162nd Ave E	0.66mi	4/3.0	3,164 (-6%)	9mo	$784,000	$248	50
1613 148th Ter E	0.60mi	4/4.5	3,601 (+7%)	7mo	$1,645,000	$457	50
3311 E 155th Ave	0.62mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,125 (-7%)	6mo	$705,000	$226	48
2919 159th Ter E	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,886 (-14%)	8mo	$885,000	$307	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-266,984
• Equity at exit: $110,995

10-year hold

• IRR: -92.7%
• Equity multiple: -1.16×
• Total profit: $-449,667
• Equity at exit: $64,364

Cash invested: $208,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.5 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $668,999 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 195 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2985
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,825 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,904
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$931 /mo · $11,166/yr
• Insurance: −$310
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$803
• Net cashflow: $-2,123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,512

Max offer price $437,241

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,608	-5% $-1,866	+0% $-2,123	+5% $-2,380	+10% $-2,637
Rent	-10% $-2,425	-5% $-2,274	+0% $-2,123	+5% $-1,972	+10% $-1,821
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,748	-0.5pp $-1,933	base $-2,123	+0.5pp $-2,316	+1.0pp $-2,512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $186,104
• Closing costs: $22,333
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	119d	1	1.11mi
2840 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2601	$2,785	$1.07	4d	1	1.25mi
16536 Cheyanne Ct Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2377	$2,790	$1.17	7d	1	1.32mi
1043 145th Street Cir NE Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2600	$6,500	$2.50	9d	1	1.34mi
16005 42nd Gln E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	3157	$4,000	$1.27	87d	1	1.39mi
13927 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2552	$3,350	$1.31	7d	1	1.44mi
3307 Barber Ave Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2377	$2,760	$1.16	7d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan named SageNew construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 3360

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (model: Sage)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $539,950 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $539,950 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $539,950 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $539,950 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $539,950 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $539,950 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $539,950 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $539,950 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $539,950 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $539,950 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $539,950 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $539,950 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $539,950 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $539,950 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $539,950 Active 202 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $539,950 Active 201 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $539,950 Active 200 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $539,950 Active 199 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $539,950 Active 198 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $539,950 Active 197 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $539,950 Active 196 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $539,950 Active 195 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $539,950 Active 194 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $539,950 Active 193 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $539,950 Active 192 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $539,950 Active 191 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $539,950 Active 190 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $539,950 Active 189 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $539,950 Active 188 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $539,950 Active 187 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $539,950 Active 186 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $539,950 Active 185 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $539,950 Active 184 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $539,950 Active 183 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $539,950 Active 182 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $539,950 Active 181 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    pricedays on market $539,950 Active 180 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $529,950 Active 179 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $529,950 Active 178 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $529,950 Active 177 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $529,950 Active 176 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $529,950 Active 175 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $529,950 Active 171 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $529,950 Active 169 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $529,950 Active 168 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $529,950 Active 164 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $529,950 Active 163 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $529,950 Active 162 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $529,950 Active 161 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $529,950 Active 158 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,699
• − Property taxes: −$11,166
• − Insurance: −$3,722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,672
• − Management: −$3,672
• − Depreciation: −$21,656
• Taxable loss: −$39,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,525
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a spacious layout with modern amenities and a desirable location. Painting, updating the flooring, and upgrading the kitchen appliances can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring with modern, durable options can improve the home's overall appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern, energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for potential buyers who prioritize energy efficiency and modern conveniences. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School A FL #185/2,144 Nat'l #1,912/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan named SageNew construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 3360

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (model: Sage)