19940 E Palo Verde Ln · Black Canyon City, AZ 85324

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1974 0.38 ac lot Est $202k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Spcecial. 1974 2 bedroom 1 bath singlewide with a 26X33 detached garage on .38 of an acre. Property is being sold in AS IS condition Seller will make NO repairs.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New bathroom
• Shed

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOM
• MINI SPLIT UNIT
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• DETACHED BLOCK GARAGE
• SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 16,553 sq. ft. (assessor); Directions: Old Black Canyon HWY to Mud Springs Road to Palo Verde Lane.
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking (1 space); 1-car garage
• Utilities: Propane; Private water company; Septic (in and connected); County maintained road
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Metal siding; Steel frame; Wood frame; Painted exterior; Reflective coating roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: RV hookup; Natural desert front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Mini split cooling; Floor furnace heating; Wall furnace heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Inside laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-698/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#213 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Canon Elementary District (4484) (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #294 of 501 in AZ (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canon School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 131 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 65% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Canon Elementary District (4484) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $189k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,771 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,600
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19940 E Palo Verde Ln	0.00mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	1mo	$158,000	$188	99
33487 S Ha Wa Si Trl	0.60mi	2/2.0	896 (+7%)	1mo	$215,000	$240	56
19500 E Gregory St #34	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+10%)	14mo	$120,000	$130	39
33180 S Canyon Rd	0.71mi	1/2.0 (-1)	769 (-8%)	13mo	$300,000	$390	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $99,134
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $294,651
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85324

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,411

Max offer price $178,728

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-5	+0% $-58	+5% $-112	+10% $-165
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-111	+0% $-58	+5% $-5	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-10	base $-58	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
3. 2026-04-07
   price $189,000
4. 2026-03-16
   listed $195,000 Active
5. 2022-10-03
   soldstatus $76,000
6. 2022-09-30
   soldstatus $76,000 Closed 171-char remark

   Show marketing remark (171 chars)

   Investor Spcecial. 1974 2 bedroom 1 bath singlewide with a 26X33 detached garage on .38 of an acre. Property is being sold in AS IS condition Seller will make NO repairs.

7. 2022-09-16
   status Pending 171-char remark

   Show marketing remark (171 chars)

   Investor Spcecial. 1974 2 bedroom 1 bath singlewide with a 26X33 detached garage on .38 of an acre. Property is being sold in AS IS condition Seller will make NO repairs.

8. 2022-09-14
   listed $76,000 Active 171-char remark

   Show marketing remark (171 chars)

   Investor Spcecial. 1974 2 bedroom 1 bath singlewide with a 26X33 detached garage on .38 of an acre. Property is being sold in AS IS condition Seller will make NO repairs.

9. 2016-03-05
   historical
10. 2016-02-24
    listed $60,000
11. 2015-08-12
    historical
12. 2015-06-08
    listed $55,000
13. 2015-01-27
    historical
14. 2013-12-10
    listed $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,247 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$707/yr (+$59/mo · 130.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$4,087
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$981
• After-tax cash flow: $283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canon Elementary District (4484)
• NCES district ID: 0401650
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,755
• Composite: 27.85/100
• National rank: #12286
• State rank: #294 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Black Canyon City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #21226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Canyon City, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,297

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.16%
• Current HPI: 417.6032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+215.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $189,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2022-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-30 Sold (MLS) $76,000 ARMLS
• 2022-09-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-09-14 Listed $76,000 ARMLS
• 2016-03-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2016-02-24 Listed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2015-08-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-06-08 Listed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2015-01-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-12-10 Listed $60,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $541 · +27.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.